Monday marked a modest gain on the day after suffering two big down days. The inside up day brought very light volume, for a digestive tone and a day that stopped the bleeding. The VIX closed on the 10dma at 22.59 and the TRIN at .46 bullish. Gold closed up $21.50 to $1105.30 an ounce and oil up $1.54 to $74.13 a barrel. Much larger ranges on commodities than the broader markets had.
Digestive days are just that ..digestive. The start of a new month came in slowly and will likely step up the volatility Tuesday and throughout the week. Bracketing the days range will be easy because it was so narrow for a move outside and expanding. The same support levels I outlined last night are still in place. Nas Composite 2113.99 and into 2088.90 should be on watch for good support. Nas 100 is on the November 27th swing low and has 1704.88 just below as support. S&P 500 had Nov. 27th and December 9th swing lows and broke that support, look for 1055.14 support. The Dow also has support at 9899.58 after breaking the prior swing lows. If those levels don’t hold this correction may accelerate deeper than the bulls can stomach.
The ES and TF did test the daily and weekly pivot, the NQ did not test the weekly today. That is still overhead at 1764.75 and we’ll look for that on any strength to test. Futures narrow range left us in a tiny range all day, that should break early Tuesday and get us moving. The Nasdaq has to step in if the bulls want any advance to be successful, it lagged terribly on Monday. Tech was underperforming which is our key into Tuesday. No tech will lead us lower, tech steps in and brings the bulls we’ll retrace last week’s losses. 1097.25 ES, 1795 NQ and 617 TF resistance is key to any higher ground and a bigger upside move.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, G7 Meetings, 3:00 Consumer Credit m/m. Saturday G7 meetings continue.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ADM, BP, COCO, CMI, DOW, DHI, HSY, KFT, LXK, MAN, MRO, SU, UTI, UPS, and after the bell ACE, AFL, JDSU, MEE, MET, NWSA, QSFT, RENT, SSD, TSO, VASC, VRSN. Wednesday pre market ATMI, CMCSA, HNT, IP, ITG, NOV, PFE, RL, R, SGP, SLAB, TWX, TZOO, and after the bell NDN, AFFX, AKAM, BBBB, CELL, BRCM, CSCO, ONNN, OHB, SSTI, SPF, STLD, THQI, V, YUM. Thursday pre market BCRX, BG, CI, CLX, CME, ITWO, K, MA, MF, PENN, PAS, SLE, SNE, HOT, and after the bell ATVI, MCHP, SUN, VARI. Friday pre market AET, BZH, BRKS, BZH, TSN, WY, YRCW and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1083, weekly pivot 1079.50. Intraday support: 1078.75, 1074.25, 1070.75-1070.50 fills gap, 1065.50, 1062.25, 1058 70%, 1052.50, 1048 78.6%. Resistance: 1087.50, 1093, 1097.25 38.2%, 1106.75, 1116.25, 1123.50, 1129.75, 1134.25, 1138.25, 1145.75 fills gap.