Monday gapped up but didn’t repeat the pattern we’ve seen frequently with Monday gaps.  This gap faded off and left the market looking like tech would give us a leg down , but we did hold over Friday’s low and close the Nasdaq modestly red leaving the SPX and Dow modestly green.  The TRIN closed at .94 neutral and the VIX at 17.55 after dropping to 16.86 May 2008 levels.  Gold closed at $1151.70 up $12.80 and oil down 23 cents to $82.52 a barrel.

Into Tuesday the market still sets on the fence of decision.  Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings after the bell, they met on the revenue and missed on EPS.  The stock is trading down after the bell after closing at 17.44 and now at 16.57.  That pulled futures down and as I type comments they are trading down.  The morning will kick off with economic data and likely try to settle in to digest what AA had to say and what that means for other big companies to come.  Thursday is the next big release with Intel (INTC) and Friday JP Morgan (JPM). 

I would still like to see the SPX and NDX on the same page and that is getting closer after today’s action.  The low VIX is still keeping the market complacent and is now making puts or selling calls very cheap.  We will likely tread water lightly around a few positions in this expiration week to take advantage of that complacency.  The NQ dropped and tested the weekly pivot, the ES did not get that far.  The NQ was weaker and then found support to take us into chop mode.  The ES had no trouble holding on and chopping around while the NQ worked on finding buyers.  A weak opening on Tuesday should be a sign of weakness, but I don’t think it will get bought as easily as we’ve seen in the past few weeks.  It is likely to give the market that pullback we need and in the first half of expiration week that would be a nice setup ahead of INTC and JPM. 

Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.  Wednesday 10:30 Crude Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.  Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas.  Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire Manufacturing, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute:  Tuesday pre market KBH and after the market LLTC.  Wednesday pre market NWPX and after the bell OHB, ZZ.  Thursday pre market SCHW and after the bell INTC.  Friday pre market JPM and nothing after the bell.

NQ  (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday’s  pivot 1884.50, weekly pivot 1882.50.  Support: 1877, 1872, 1866.50-1865.75, 1858.75.   Resistance: 1886, 1891.75, 1895, 1900.25, 1907, 1912.75, 1918.25-1920.50, 1925.50