Monday brought a modestly red day across the broader markets. The day was a narrow range very light volume day. The volume was the lightest we’ve seen in three week. Very lackluster leading into what we hope to be a volatile week. With the job’s data due on Friday the market should see some movement throughout the week for positioning. The TRIN closed at 1.21 bearish on the day and the VIX at 29.00. Gold closed down $17.70 to $1238.60 and oil down 61 cents to $78.25 a barrel.
Monday left a spinning top still inside Friday’s range, pretty flat day overall. Very much like Friday’s neutral action continued into today. The market held range and that leaves us in the same conditions we closed last week with. The broader markets held 61.8% Fibonacci support off the May 25th low to the June 21st high. June comes to an end on Wednesday, right now the market sits pretty much on May’s close and mid June range. The market is still within May’s range, only the Dow dipped under May’s low while the other indexes held just over. Leaving June in the lower half of May’s very big range and doing nothing but churning for June.
Nas Composite May low 2140.53 and then into 2050.23 will be key. Nas 100 May’s low 1752.31 and then into 1567.82 will be key. S&P 500 1040.78 May’s low and 1006.99 for support. Dow 9774.48 for May’s low and then 9396.61 support. Those are big levels and not anything near term but likely if we drop May’s low.
Futures did test the daily pivots, but not the weekly. Into Tuesday the market needs to find some volume to start with. Es holds over 1066.25 the bulls should step in and push us up toward the weekly pivot (1089). NQ 1827.75 support holds the push to 1869.25 weekly pivot can be watched for.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, All Day Total Vehicle Sales. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell GIS, WOR. Wednesday pre market APP, AM, MON, and after the bell APOL, SCHN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ and FLOW. Friday nothing due out.
