Monday closed the day on the highs, the market opened strong and continued higher throughout the day. Volume was split on the day with the NYSE lighter than Friday and the Nasdaq slightly higher than Friday. Futures were split with the ES and TF lower and NQ higher. The TRIN closed at .83 in the bulls territory, it took awhile to see the TRIN fall out of the bears zone, which didn’t tell us the rally was broad based. By day’s end things were better but that is still not as low of a number as I would expect on a trend day up. Showing we were seeing the bulls buy but also seeing sellers. The VIX showed us a new swing low closing at 19.26 dropping the February 22nd low of 19.59. Gold closed down 60 cents to $1118.30 and oil down 96 cents to $78.70 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite moved through 2239.90 61.8% resistance and now has 2277.89 78.6% fib resistance left to clear before looking for the January highs. The Nas 100 has 1857.99 resistance before the January 1897.49 highs to watch for. S&P 500 moved over 1109.98 resistance and now we can look for 1127.78 overhead. The Dow just edged over 10388 61.8% and now needs to stay over that level to work toward 10538.40. Moving through 61.8% is a bullish move on the indexes, now we have to stay over that level to continue onward to 78.6%. I said last week we would probably gap and go over the resistance, futures did but the cash indexes required some work to get over the hump. A confirmation day to close higher is still needed to keep moving forward. The volume was hit and miss the TRIN remained higher than I thought it should to be real bullish. Which leaves me to walk into Tuesday with cautious optimism for continuation.
Futures moved higher and over 1107 for the ES, 633.80 for the TF and 1827.75 for the NQ. Futures did not test the daily or weekly pivots today. Which leaves us to still look for that to come this week. The daily will be easy to hit into Tuesday, but the weekly is well below us and would require a much deeper pullback. The ES onto 1125 is the next key level now that we’ve cleared 1107 and the NQ has 1860 and TF 648.90.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AZO, SPLS, UNFI and after the bell BGFV, EGLE, HOV, PDLI, PAY. Wednesday pre market BIG, BJ, COST, JOYG, and after the bell CRA, FL, NGS, PETM, SIA, VM, VOLC. Thursday pre market ARIA, ATPG, BABY, OSTK, STP, URBN, WEN and after the bell COO, DDS, BOOM, IDSY, MRVL, SMTC, SPWRA. Friday pre market SOLF and after the bell LMIA.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +11.22 at 1115.71. Support: 1104.62, 1088.75, 1071.86, 1059.82. Resistance: 1119.41, 1127.78, 1150.45 1/19 swing high.
