Monday ended the day green across the broader markets with an advance on lighter volume. The weak start shrugged off and left the Nasdaq leading the markets higher. The A/D and U/D lines were slow and steady to the upside throughout the day closing on the highs with a TRIN at .69 to support the bulls. The VIX closed at 16.87 after starting the day at 18.34. Gold closed down $6.30 to $1101.30 and oil up 57 cents to $81.25.
The market opened under Friday’s low and it looked like the bears would see continuation off Friday’s fall until the tech side of the market sparked some buying. The market closed just off the highs and erased Friday’s losses leaving the market in the same range we’ve sat in since Thursday. Seeing the market alternate days in range is very digestive and leaves us a little lackluster. However, it is holding up and still under key resistance levels leaving us with some lift room still. (On the weekly charts the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows the Dow has retraced over 50% of the losses and sits 200 points under 61.8% (11245). The Nas Composite is just under 2393.88 70.7%, Nas 100 1982.68 78.6% is the next big resistance level, and the SPX has moved to new highs nicely but still under 1228.74 61.8% resistance.)
The Es held over 1147.25 (support outlined last night) and rallied near last weeks highs which we will still watch for overhead at 1165.50. An advance through 1165.50 will let us see 1175.75 before seeing the market pause. The pullbacks were as shallow as the bounces on Friday. The market likes this one direction and doesn’t let the opposing side get far on these trending days. The NQ a moved through last weeks 1948.25 highs and we can look for 1964.25. The TF 685.20 and onto 695.80 will still be levels overhead to look for. Key supports to look for now will be 1154 on the ES and then 1142.50. The NQ 1935 and then 1923.25, the TF 674.90 and 669.80 will be supports to look for on any weakness. A gap up should be looked at cautiously, if we can’t drop the first 15 minutes range, a gap and crawl day may come in for us. Breaking that opening range in 15 minutes on any gap up would let us see a pullback, but don’t get overly excited if we don’t see that drop on a strong opening to short.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market KBH, SCS and after the bell ADBE, DRI, JBL, SONC. Wednesday pre market CMC, GIS, LEN, RBN and after the bell PAYX, CKR, RHT. Thursday pre market BBY, CAG, LULU, SCHL, GASS, TXI, UTIW and after the bell CAN, FINL, ORCL, PBY, TBIX, WTSLA. Friday nothing due out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1940.75, weekly pivot 1927.50. Support: 1941, 1935, 1929, 1923.25, 1918.75, 1914.75 Resistance: 1951.75, 1955, 1958.25, 1964, 1972
