Monday closed the day green on very light volume with a narrow range day. The market couldn’t even get out of range to show us a lot of anything. Digestive contracting days lead to expansion. Neutral narrow range days do help the market to take a breather and to move. The VIX closed at 17.59 and the TRIN at 1.03, near the days low. Although over 1.00 is bearish the direction the TRIN move was downward until after the first hour VERY slowly. Gold closed up $5.20 to $1109.50 and oil up $2.16 to $82.16.
Tuesday bracket Mondays range and look for a break of the narrow range. That doesn’t mean the market will follow through but is it the first hint we will get for direction. Until the market breaks last week’s high/low we aren’t likely to have a lot of follow through. The bulls tried today to hold on and show strength, but the range held onto us. The Nasdaq was modestly weaker than the other indexes. Hardware and banks really struggled throughout the day closing red on both sectors.
Now we have 1169 as a critical area and we bounced around it a lot Monday. Any rejection there is likely to lead us down to 1151.75. The NQ 1940.50 support came in and now a bounce up to 1961 is likely. Any rejection there lets us look for that deeper pullback into 1931.25 support. Futures did not test the daily or weekly pivots Monday, look for Tuesday to be a magnet area and those numbers are key with fibs too.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Vehicle Sales all day. Friday US markets are closed for Good Friday (globex trading is open until 9:15est). 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market CIE, LDK and after the bell EXFO, ZZ, TISI. Wednesday pre market DG, OSTK, RAD, and after the bell BLUD, MOS, RIMM, XRTX. Thursday pre market AZZ, KMX, SCHN, SCHL and after the bell MU, PBY. Friday nothing due out US markets are closed.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1168.25, weekly pivot 1162.25. Intraday support: 1165.50, 1162, 1159.50, 1156.50, 1154, 1152-1151.75, 1148.25-1147.75, 1145, 1142.75. Resistance: 1170.75-1172.25, 1175.75-1176.75, 1181, 1186.50, 1190.50
