Monday left the market higher on the day with higher volume than we saw on Friday leaving the week to start with an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Market breadth came out of the gate strong on the gap up and continued to build throughout the day. The TRIN closed at .60 bullish on the day and the VIX 22.89 about 7% off the 10dma. Leaving us with little volatility to hang our hats on still. Gold closed up $22.30 to $1139 an ounce and oil up $2.59 to $78.94 a barrel.
The broader markets: Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 all closed at new highs for 2009, leaving only the Russell 2000 still lagging. Closing very near the highs gave the bulls a good start on the week. The market continues to climb a wall of worry, even Meredith Whitney’s bearish tone and Chairman Bernanke didn’t shake the wall today. The 65 minute charts are very tired and started the day with divergence early on and into the upper Bollinger band, the sideways action helped to digest that, but we are still at a line in the sand on that chart. Stochastics are trying to cross down, CCI is at 0 line, RSI at 58 and a flat MACD. Daily charts are still giving the bulls some room but a few levels to keep handy. Nas Composite 2251.84, Nas 100 1887.98 (needs to say over 1781.28 to hold here), S&P 500 1121.44-1158.76, Dow 10495.20, and Russell 2000 625.31 and onto 660.38. It is expiration week and that isn’t usually a one sided week, so as we near those resistance levels look for some stiff resistance.
Monday was a tech party and a relief economic data wasn’t as bad as expected. Tuesday will focus more on correcting the late divergence and the economic data to come. Which is certainly capable of moving the market. Futures did not even test the daily pivots and weekly were under that which left us still. As I stated at the end of last week we didn’t see last weeks weekly numbers and that is unusual. Which makes this weeks more of a focus, the ES is down at 1086.5, NQ 1769.5 and TF 582.60. Missing the daily on a gap and go day, isn’t unusual but that also means Tuesday’s daily come into play for us in a bigger way usually. The ES daily is 1105.75, NQ 1802.50 and TF 598.30. An early pullback will be on watch for us and then see if the bulls can run through Monday’s highs.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:15 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market HD, SKS, TGT, and after the bell ADSK, LZB, CRM. Wednesday pre market BJ, SOLF and after the bell HOTT, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, CIT, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, and after the bell DELL, GPS, INTU, OHB, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, DHI, SLM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
