Monday left the day with an incredibly narrow range with the Dow closing +.03%, COMPX +.01%, SPX +.01%, NDX unchanged and the RUT -.05%. Volume was anemic on the day, which is very normal for a narrow range day. Columbus Day also came into the mix and took the wind out of the markets sail. The VIX is back to April 30th levels closing at 18.96 and the TRIN is at 1.41. Gold closed up $8.80 to $1354.10 and oil down 45 cents to $82.21 a barrel.
The days tiny range left the market with the same key resistance overhead that I outlined over the weekend. The Nas Composite has 2433.81, the NDX 2059.42, and the SPX 1175.10 to watch for overhead as resistance. The leadership came from tech today leaving the SOX into 357.07 resistance and Hardware (HWI) 306.58. Keep those levels handy moving into Tuesday’s opening. I expect an early pullback across the indexes and key sectors. Volume should increase each day this week into Friday’s expiration.
Futures did test the daily pivots, very late day, but not the weekly pivots. They are within striking distance if we open week into Tuesday. The ES has 1150.50 weekly pivot and 38.2% support there to converge as a good support. The NQ weekly pivot is 2004 and 2006.75 is 38.2% support. The TF 683 weekly pivot with 684.30 38.2% just over the pivot for a nice zone of support. A move through Monday’s high is likely to bring in a lot of volume and send the market running. We’ve been stuck in range and a pullback would fuel the bulls or a break out with no chance to get on board lower will force some hands to get in to bring in that volume. It is a waiting game until one or the other happens for us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 4:10am Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 8:30 Import Prices. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 8:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market CNM, FAST and after the bell ADTN, CSX, INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market ASML, DPZ, JPM and after the bell APOL. Thursday pre market FCS, MTG, PGR, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, NARA. Friday pre market SCHW, GE, INFY, MAT and after the bell WDFC.
