Monday closed the day green with the Nasdaq Composite +.46%, NDX +.44%, Dow +.28% and SPX +.21% on the day. Volume increased on the day for accumulation days on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The TRIN closed at .84 and the VIX at 19.85. Gold closed up $14.90 to $1340 and oil up 83 cents to $82.52 a barrel.
The market gapped up and continued higher until 10, which put in the highs on the day. The market closed on the lows but still held gains because of the strong start. The market losing steam slowly didn’t do a lot for trading, but it did bring in that volume and finish modestly green. Finishing the day on the lows and because we had last week as overbought, today’s late day drop concerns me for the bulls. Seeing some pullback and profit taking would be healthy for the market. However, volume should be light on a pullback and we are in the last week of the month which generally brings in heavier volume. That could give us some headaches if we see the bears getting some distribution days. However, a little headache and fear won’t hurt our volatility so for us it is good.
Futures did not test the pivots (daily or weekly) and that means Tuesday we look for both to get a nice test. ES had nice support at 1178.5 and onto 1169.75. The NQ 2104 and 2097.50, the TF watch 702 and 698.7 for area’s to watch for on any retracement. With the SOX leading the Nasdaq today and now we have TXN down after hours that will take some air out of the SOX. KLAC and MXIM report later in the week so we’ll keep a watchful eye on the SOX 356.37 support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 4:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 4:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AKS, BIIB, COH, CMI, DD, ECL, LXK, MYL, OXPS, PCAR, AMTD, X, VLO, and after the bell AFL, BRCM, FFIV, MEE, NVLS, PNRA, STM, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ADP, COP, DPS, GD, IACI, IP, LM, MSO, PFCB, PG, SAP, S, VPHM, WHR, and after the bell ACE, AFFX, AEM, ALL, GG, NSC, RYL, TER, V, VISN. Thursday pre market MMM, ADLR, BX, BG, CAH, CLS, CELG, CME, CMS, XRAY, DOW, DUK, XOM, IDA, LLL, MOT, PTEN, POT, RTN, HOT, TE, ZMH and after the bell PAR, AKAM, AMCC, BMC, CEPH, CSTR, DLLR, FSLR, GPRO, GNW, KLAC, LVS, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSFT, QSFT, SUN, VAR, VSEA, VRSN. Friday pre market AGP, AON, CVX, CI, CMC, D, LPNT, MRK, NDAQ, WY and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1186, weekly pivot 1174.50. Intraday support: 1183, 1178.50-1177, 1172.75, 1169.75-1167.25, 1163.50-1161, 1156.50, 1149.50, 1144.25, 1139.50, 1134.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1185.75, 1188.50, 1190.50, 1196-1198, 1201.75, 1205, 1211
