Friday closed the day green across the broader markets, the week closed up and left the market back to mid August levels. Volume reflected the markets lack of participation going into the long weekend with very light volume. The VIX closed 16.5% off the 10dma at 21.31 and the TRIN very bullish at .34. Gold closed the day down $3.30 to $1250.10 and oil up 42 cents to $74.60 a barrel.
The week left a nice hammers that engulfed the last 2 ½ weeks of action, the bulls need to show continuation at this point to confirm that with another week higher. The daily charts are still possibly forming a right shoulder for the inverted head and shoulders pattern. We’ve been watching this all week and the advance last week brought the price action off the swing low nicely. The neckline is up at 10719.94 Dow, 1918.78 NDX, 2309.43 COMPX, and 1129.24 on the SPX. The SPX has the 200dma about 11 points away (1115.62) after clearing the 50dma on Thursday that was a big step and now the 200dma is the next step which is very near that neckline. The Dow is just 3 points off the 200dma (10451.22), the NDX closed 8 points over the 200dma and the COMPX is about 37 points under the 200dma (2271.80). Leaving each index just within striking distance of that key moving average.
I don’t like that the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday lift was on light volume, that is expected into a holiday weekend, but we did just bleed up. Friday and Wednesday left gaps open and that usually requires retracement to find additional buyers. The SOX closed right into 330.71 38.2% and Hardware sits just under 38.2% 283.33 resistance. Brokers need to clear105.83 resistance and banks are nearing the $47.08 50dam with 48.36 200dma just beyond that. Expect the market to have a slow start coming off a three day weekend and for folks to be looking around to start positioning. The week doesn’t always find a lot of direction following Labor Day because we have Rosh Hashanah holiday this week. That can keep volumes light and keep us counting down the days to get us to mid September to find normal activity. The week should be better than last week though, so don’t get in a big hurry.
Futures did not test the daily pivots on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, it is very unusual but a lot of it was the gaps not backfilling at all so they were left untested. The weekly did test Monday, so that did stay orderly. The ES has 1108.50 as a key resistance area and then onto 1127.75 is the bigger target. Support at 1089.5 gap fill and 1078.75 will be key to stay above to see that higher ground. The NQ 1880.75 resistance and onto 1918 should be in our sights. Support at 1847 and 1837.25 fills the gap for support. The TF 653.30 resistance and onto 671.50 is a nice lift for the small caps resistance. Support is 632.40 gap fill and 625.50 -622.10 support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday US Markets are closed, Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday 2:00 Beige Book, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday US Markets are closed. Tuesday pre market CASY, PIKE and after the bell FLOW, PBY, PVH. Wednesday pre market JTX, TLB, TITN, UNFI, and after the bell MW, GAME, SHFL. Thursday premarket PNY and after the bell NSM, SWHC. Friday prêt market BRC, LULU and nothing after the bell.
