Tuesday closed to the upside with the Russell 2000 +1.82%, Nas 100 +1.30%, Nas Composite +1.26%, S&P 500 +1.21% and the Dow +1.00% on the day. Volume came in as the market moved higher with a nice trend day gradually climbing for an accumulation day. The TRIN closed at .69 and the VIX at 24.33. Gold moved up $2.00 to $1228.20 an ounce and oil rallied to close at $75.77 +.53 a barrel.
The Dow closed over the 50dma and just under the 200dma and in the lower quadrant on the 8/11 fall. The Nas Composite filled the 8/11 gap and pierced the 50dma, still closing under that resistance. Nas 100 also filled the 8/11 gap and pierced both the 50dma and 200dma’s, closing under both. S&P 500 filled the 8/11 gap, still closing in the lower quarter of the 8/11 range and just a step over the 50dma. The SPX has danced over and under this 50dma since mid July. Which means one day over does mean a bull rally. The move up did have the volume to support the move, but again one accumulation day doesn’t guarantee continuation.
The weak close took the wind out of the sails on the bulls despite the strong market breadth. The ES needed to hold over 1089.25 and we closed just below, so that will be pivotal into Wednesday’s open. Now 1089.25-1086.25 will be what we look to hold, otherwise this rally isn’t likely to hold any of the gains. The NQ has 1845-1837.25 is the key area, the NQ dropped 1845 and now has 1837.25 support to hold or the rally is likely to give up all the gains. The TF 624.30 support and 619.60 needs to hold or look for lower ground. The day left a gap open and that isn’t likely to stay open if we drop the supports outlined above. Taking out Tuesday’s high would result in a bigger advance on the indexes.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
