Tuesday brought a modestly green day across the broader markets. Volume fell off on the NYSE and Nasdaq, futures volume was higher though. The day did close with shooting stars on the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Nas Composite, which can be pointing to a pullback coming across the board. The TRIN closed at 1.03 bearish with the VIX at 24.92, with a hammer. Gold closed up $2.00 at $945.70 and oil down $2.38 to $71.99 a barrel.
The day’s shooting stars may lead to a pullback, Wednesday needs to close lower to confirm that move. The Dow and SPX left potential reversal bars on Monday into the upper Bollinger bands, but they did not confirm into Tuesday. Now we have potential reversal bars on all four indexes and that still leaves us waiting on a move. All four are also into the upper bollingers and will need to move sideways in range to work that off or pullback to get them away from that rubber band. No other indicators on the daily are overbought, the 65 minute are not overbought either. The 65 minute do have the CCI at the 0 line for support, RSI down into low 60’s pointed down, Stochastics moving down and the MACD moving down. ALL of which support the technical point on the daily to pull in. The market is what I’d call head strong on this issue, one direction for so long it is stubborn to come off. So we have to be patient and a catalyst would not hurt to get it rolling.
The early data into Wednesday maybe that catalyst and provide us with a weak start on the day. Futures have not tested the weekly pivots, but so far this week the daily have been instrumental. The days lows have been on the pivot, I wouldn’t expect that into Wednesday though, but it is a good observation as a line in the sand for us. Leaving Monday’s low as a key to get us moving lower and down into the weekly levels 1009.25 on the ES, 1612.25 NQ and 569.50 for the Russell (TF).
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market DLTR, KIRK, WSM and after the bell JAS, SINA, TIVO. Thursday pre market AEO, ENER, TOL and after the bell DELL, DLLR, FCEL, MRVL, OVTI. Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1642.25, weekly pivot 1612.25, monthly 1541.75. Support: 1634.50, 1628.75, 1621.50-1619.50 38.2%, 1613.50 fills gap-1612.25. Resistance: 1643, 1647.75, 1651.25, 1655.50, 1660.25, 1667.75
