Tuesday brought in another winning day for the broader markets, however it was very modest and ended up turning green in the last minutes of the race to new highs. Volume stayed steady throughout the day to outpace Monday’s on the NYSE and Nasdaq for a second accumulation day this week. Futures volume was off slightly, still isn’t lining up with equities, they keep alternating on us. The TRIN closed bullish at .77 and the VIX at 24.97, sitting right on the 10dma. Crude fell 18 cents to $71.40 and gold rallied to $10.80 closing at $969.60 an ounce.
Market breadth wasn’t as strong as the prior bullish days we’ve seen, it really was just neutral on the A/D and U/D lines throughout the day. Never over bearing or full of conviction, which is a different tone, despite the day ending on the highs and seeing the higher level of participation. Into Wednesday the market will get a glimpse at what ADP has to say about job’s ahead of the governments numbers due out Friday. That should bring plenty of volatility for the opening and into 10:00 additional data is due. After the bell Cisco (CSCO) is on tap and will be looked at carefully, although Chambers (CEO) is always very conservative on the call and forecast.
Off the opening the market is still within striking distance of key fib resistance overhead. The October 2007 highs down to the March 2009 lows the Nas Composite has 2063.52 50%, Nas 100 has 1639.82 50%, S&P 500 1014.14 38.2% and 9422.10 38.2% inching closer for us. As the SPX and Dow near 38.2% it will be key spots, the Nasdaq has led the market and through that level and onto 50%, but 38.2% is big. With the SPX and Dow both in inverted head and shoulders on the weekly those levels are also the neckline. Watch the upper Bollinger on the weekly as it nears. Daily across the indexes the RSI is at 75-76.33, get over 80 we’ll have reason for concern about the overbought conditions. CCI is at 100 lines and MACD flattening to bring the lines together which keeps the volatility contracting.
Daily is not overbought, RSI is getting close but nothing else really is and the 65 minute with the intraday pullback is also showing some room for upside movement. No sign of a bull strike or the bears getting a 10 course meal anytime soon. Bad news could drop us, but as the market inches higher it gives the bulls more room to wiggle to protect gains and less reason to start taking profits. Until we see a swing low taken out or a retracement into 38.2% the bulls have nothing to worry about at this point. 13 minute futures are looking a little like a possible ABC pattern, with the A and B legs complete, the C leg is in progress and look for 1008 minimum but likely to see 1013 before any pullback comes into play. NQ 1633 and onto 1638 with 1644.5 very possible. We did not see the weekly pivot and played off the Tuesday daily non stop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ABK, AGU, BHI, DF, DVN, EE, GRMN, MMC, OSG, PG, SEP, RIG, XTO and after the bell NDN, BBBB, CECO, CRA, CSCO, GDP, INSP, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, SUNH, SUN, TIE, WGL. Thursday pre market AES, EAT, CMCSA, CTB, DSX, EP, FTO, KG, MMS, PCS, NDAQ, OMG, WEN, WMB, and after the bell ACS, AIG, BZH, NILE, CBS, CHINA, CROX, ELX, HANS, MXIM, MCHP, NGS, NVDA, THS, VRSN, WTW. Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1001 weekly pivot 980, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1000.50, 997.75-995.75, 990.50-989.75, 986.50, 981.75, 979.50. Resistance: 1003, 1007, 1009.75-1010, 1016.50
13 minute ES
