Tuesday another win for the bulls, they are sending a happy holiday’s message on no volume. Volume dropped again today leaving the market with even less participation than Monday. Which was already well below average and now we are just anemic, get the defibrillator out for the rest of the week. The VIX hit new lows on the year while the COMPX, NDX and SPX all hit new highs on the year and closed at new highs. The Dow missed the 2009 highs by about 50 points. The TRIN closed at 1.05 and the VIX at 19.54. Gold closed down $9.30 to $1086.70 and oil up 68 cents to $74.40 a barrel.
The COMPX and Nas 100 have the CCI is at extremes and turning down for divergence, RSI 65, stochastics 92 and through the upper Bollinger band. The SPX is through the upper Bollinger band, RSI at 59, stochastics at 77 and CCI at 152, no divergence like the Nasdaq indexes and not nearing overbought conditions like the Nasdaq. All three indexes closed at new highs on the year, but this volume will leave this a little weary after the holidays pass.
As I said over the weekend in comments, we would need to see financials step up and come to play this week to see any advances. Both the banks (BKX) and brokers (XBD) are coming off the swing lows nicely and put in three consecutive days of wins now. Both sectors remain under the 50dma’s which are nearing and will be big resistance to test. BKX 50dma is at 44.20 and XBD at 115.96, another day of gains would get the sectors there.
Into Wednesday another round of economic data, which is likely to provide the early movement. I would like to see a little more range expansion instead of the first hour being pretty much it on the day. However, it is the holiday’s and that is likely to be our tone again. Which leaves us to bracket that hour and look for any movement outside of it, but again don’t have huge expectations for that happening until it does. Futures have not traded into pivots all week, no daily or weekly. Two days of not seeing the daily is very unusual and we are likely to see it a lot Wednesday. The weekly is still way below us, that kind of fall would also clear up these open gaps we’ve left. That isn’t out of the question because we could just leave a neutral week to go no where and sit in range for the week with that kind of pullback. The problem with that happening would be this break to new highs on the year would be even bigger resistance to climb through once participation returns.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, early close 1:15. Friday US markets closed.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AM and nothing after the bell. Thursday nothing pre market and CRI after the bell. Friday US markets are closed.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1113.50, weekly pivot 1099.75. Intraday support: 1107.50 fills gap, 1105.25, 1102, 1099, 1097.75 fills gap, 1094.25, 1088.50. Resistance: 1114.75, 1118, 1119.75, 1122.75-1123.50, 1127, 1132.25
