Tuesday closed the day red across the broader markets on higher volume than Monday had to leave a distribution day. Although Monday’s range was very narrow, today’s was only marginally better. Leaving us with still little volatility and conviction. The TRIN closed at 2.15, very bearish and the VIX at 23.69. Gold fell again today off $21.20 to $1142.80 and oil down $1.19 to $72.74 a barrel. That makes for three consecutive down days on gold and five for oil.
On the Dow daily chart the CCI fell into negative territory for the first time since November 4th, dropped the 10dma and 20dema, stochastics are headed down, RSI is down to 51 and the MACD is pointed down. The NDX and SPX have stochastics pointed down, CCI in negative territory, MACD slightly sloped down but it isn’t opening up and the RSI around 50. The NDX and SPX are getting closer to the 50dma and the 10dma along with the 20dema have converged just barely over today’s close. It is winding very tight with the ma’s now narrowing. The strong sectors holding the Nasdaq up are the Telecom (XTC) and Semi’s (SOX), both are still near the 2009 highs and not coming off easily. Texas Instrument (TXN) did a mid quarter update after the bell today that the SOX will be paying attention too. The company raised the lower end of the guidance, but the stock still sold off 1.9% after the announcement.
With the strength in the Nasdaq and the weaker financials that are range bound we had two different markets today. Which makes for a frustrating day for traders, market breadth was very bearish but yet the market held up. Last night I outlined 1093.5 for the ES for support and to look for 1079.25 if we dropped that level. The ES did close lower, but the NQ put a wrench in the works by holding 1770.25. Wednesday we’ll look for confirmation of that ES drop if the NQ joins in, but otherwise I think we’ll shrug this minor pullback off and see the bulls again. The market is still in range and isn’t leaving it without a fight, which is keeping us pretty neutral. I don’t really have a bias coming into Wednesday, we will look to tech, if the SOX and telecom start to come off the market will drop. If they hold and pull the rest of the market along kicking and screaming we’ll get those 2009 highs retested.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday Futures rollover, 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Univ Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market MOV and after the bell FCEL, LULU. Thursday pre market COST, DG, UNFI and after the bell LTRE, NSM. Friday nothing of interest
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1771.50, weekly pivot 1787. Support: 1763.50, 1757.50, 1750.25 38.2%, 1741.75, 1731.25 Resistance: 1781.50, 1788.25, 1794.75, 1799.75, 1804.25, 1807.50, 1816.25 12/4 swing high, 1820.75, 1828, 1830, 1833.50
