Tuesday delivered a much needed pullback to close the day with a modest loss, off the lows, but red across the board. Volume did increase today to close out the month/quarter and mid-year mark leaving the market with a distribution day on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The quarter closed out green, but the month on nice gains for the Nas 100 and Composite, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to get green by 18 cents and the Dow was down 53 points on the month. Marking four up months on every major index excluding the Dow, which was really a very modest loss and the SPX a very modest gain leaving them flat more than anything. The TRIN closed at 1.89 and the VIX at 26.38. Gold closed down $13.50 to $929.20 an ounce and oil also was down on the day by $1.64 at $69.85 a barrel.
Wednesday kicks off July to bring us a pre fireworks show (we hope) and Thursday hopefully delivers the finale to us off the Jobs data. Tuesday’s volatility and follow through were the best we’ve seen in the past few sessions. We didn’t chop half a day to move at least, so improvement in that department is still expected into Wednesday and Thursday. Only because of the data we’ll have and the short week helps to pack it all in the next 48 hours. The market closed pretty neutral and that leaves a clean slate into Wednesday. The ADP data will help to move us, I think we look for a retest of the Tuesday lows before the upside will have any momentum behind it. Keep that first half hours range bracketed to guide us for direction. Without the Tuesday’s lows testing I think the upside will be lacking the power. But if that data comes in strong and shows promise and the 10:00 data backs up a positive feeling the bulls can come back in and swing up again.
The NQ rejected 1489.75 again on Tuesday, giving us two good tests there and now we will await a third. I would rather see Tuesday’s low retest before we see that higher ground, but if that doesn’t come in I’m not sure we’ll find the fuel to run higher until we hear Thursday’s big data that we sink our teeth into. Wednesday’s ADP data is usually suspect so isn’t the end of the story until we hear Thursday’s from the government. Watch 910.25 support on the ES, break there we look for deeper ground and the NQ on 1461.75 for a test if Tuesday’s low doesn’t hold us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, All day vehicle sales, Thursday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday US Market closed.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market GIS, UNF, STZ and after the bell DMAN, Thursday pre market MEI, MSM and nothing after the bell. Friday US markets are closed.
