Tuesday marked a modestly green day across the broader markets. Volume came in just under Mondays on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq outpaced Monday’s. Monday was light with that very narrow range and today really wasn’t a lot better, but futures were slightly higher. The VIX closed on the 10dma at 17.13 and the TRIN bearish again today at 1.44. That leaves us with two closes over 1.00 and on up days. That does tell us there is some profit taking up here with a TRIN that high and with quarter end and the gains the market has seen that isn’t unreasonable. Gold closed down $5.70 to $1104.60 and oil up 20 cents to $82.37 a barrel.
The day traded an up outside day following the digestive tone on Monday. 65 minute index charts are in a tight triangle, futures 60 minute also show a triangle. Very digestive and winding for a move is what a triangle does for the market. The VIX showing low volatility, a low ADX and the RSI flat just over 70 on each index and the flat MACD all support the winding for a move. Until the market can break last weeks range we won’t have clear indication of direction. The bulls are resilient and every time the door is open for the bears they don’t capitalize on it. Which still leaves us to think the upside can come in and get another leg up.
The ES continues to hug the 1169 area, we get in that area and just get stuck. The daily pivot was 1168.25 and kept us very tight as well. Wednesday the pivot is 1169, I for one will be happy to rotate off that level and not look back. We’ve been in this range since Friday and seen plenty of chop here. Futures still have not tested the weekly pivots below us. Into Wednesday the economic data picks up. The early ADP data will give the market more information on what to expect for Friday’s Job’s release when the market is closed.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Vehicle Sales all day. Friday US markets are closed for Good Friday (globex trading is open until 9:15est). 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market DG, OSTK, RAD, and after the bell BLUD, MOS, RIMM, XRTX. Thursday pre market AZZ, KMX, SCHN, SCHL and after the bell MU, PBY. Friday nothing due out US markets are closed.
