Tuesday left the market with an inside day, narrowest in 12 days on the broader markets. A modest win for the COMPX, NDX and SPX with a modest loss for the Dow. Volume came in lighter than Monday’s, which is in-line with the digestive narrow range days activities. The TRIN closed at .73 bullish on the day and the VIX at 28.81, also a narrow inside range day. Gold closed up $31.20 to $1085.20 and oil up $1.50 to $79.63 a barrel.
Wednesday will bring the market some information from the Fed, but the day will start with Economic data in the pre market. Fed Chairman Bernanke will be the key to the days tone. I expect the bulls to try to hold ground in the morning and get us to 2:15 for his words of wisdom. The daily charts are still riding the lower Bollinger and sitting over key supports (2013.55 COMPX, 1633.39 NDX, 1012.72 SPX, and Dow 9343.14). The Dow sits on the 50dma, but the COMPX, NDX and SPX all fell under last week and still sit just under those key moving averages. After the narrow range day the 10dma and 20dema still continue to come down, which should be watched for a cross of the two. If the longer term ma’s start to cross the shorter that helps the bears gain control. We still set very neutral and we’ll continue that tone until we get the Fed’s information. It won’t take the market long to have a reaction and we’ll spend the afternoon busy. The market will then look forward into Friday for the Job’s numbers and start pricing in what we can expect out of that data.
A break of Tuesday’s range will help to find direction and those narrow range days let the market rest and digest the prior move. So an easy bracket of the range lets the market setup trades for us. That doesn’t necessarily mean the market will have continuation, but it is a start.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +8.12 at 2057.32. Support: 2013.55 38.2%, 1958.84, 1904.14. Resistance: 2071.89, 2088, 2107.68, 2127.36, 2155.39.
