Tuesday closed the day split with modest wins and losses. The Russell 2000 (RUT) +.05%, Dow +.04%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) +.03% and the Nas 100 (NDX) -.26% and Nas Composite (COMPX) -.28% on the day. The day closed in the range the market has held for 6 days now. Each index closed the day with a spinning top, mid range very neutral. The TRIN closed at .82 and the VIX at 26.05. Gold closed up $11.20 to $1250.40 an ounce and oil down $2.78 to $71.92 a barrel.
With closing 6 days in range the key support is still below the broader markets and the market continues to wind in this spot for a move. The line in the sand support still holds with the Nas Composite over 2113.88 78.6%, NDX 1746.85 78.6%, SPX 1036.23 78.6% and 10036.70 61.8% on the Dow (charts below) after all testing and holding today. The market is still a possible inverted head and shoulders if we hold this support and keep this right shoulder forming to turn up. The other possibility that I outlined last night is still intact too with the bear flag. Leaving those two possibilities still on the table as long as the market chops in range.
With the volume increasing today, it was the last day of the month. We will look for that to continue into Wednesday and even pick up each day as we go into Friday’s job’s data. That doesn’t mean the range will change Wednesday, but the market is wound for a move. With the 6 days of digestion keep in mind that the market likes to move on odd numbers, will that be 7 or hold us still? With the SOX breaking the years low, there is some real weakness in the semi’s. Banks are also right on the years low 43.30 2/5/10 and that didn’t help to keep the bulls around today either.
Into Wednesday economic data will once again be the focus and provide the market with a glimpse into what Job’s are doing when we hear from ADP. With the neutral tone the market is holding we still don’t have a lot of bias. The A/D and U/D were up and down, leaving us with little to work with as we move into Wednesday. Until we leave this range we remain unbiased for direction.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Vehicle Sales all day. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market HNZ, JOSB, JOYG, ZLC and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
