Tuesday left the day split with the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite trading higher and the S&P 500 and Dow trading lower. The NDX +.36%, COMPX +.17%, SPX -.07%, Dow -.16%, and RUT -.46% on the day. Volume was also split with the NYSE lighter and the Nasdaq higher on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.05 and the VIX at 21.56, still under the 200dma. Gold moved up $24.00 $1271.10 an ounce and oil down 39 cents $76.80 a barrel.
The Nas Composite sits just under the 2309.43 8/9 swing highs. The Nas 100 moved just over the 8/9 1918.78 swing high and has 1939.77 6/21 highs just overhead. The S&P 500 sits just under 1129.24 8/9 swing high. The Dow still sits into 10552.60 78.6% resistance. The NDX and COMPX closed well beyond the upper Bollinger band (SPX and Dow did not), RSI into the 66’s, stochastics 95-96 and the CCI right over 100 line. That leaves the market short term overbought and with the last minute selling we saw come in on futures the market seems to have gotten that message.
Futures started seeing profiting taking in the last 40 minutes, finishing the day right into the swing low we put in at 2:00. Certainly not as bullish as the day was looking to be with the push into the highs and holding over the prior days close. Showing the gain and holding the prior days gains is a bullish sign, but seeing profit taking as heavy as we did is a little red flag for us coming into Wednesday.
Futures did test the pivots on the day, still no look into the weekly which are still under us. With the early data at 8:30 and the profit taking we saw late day. We will look for a weaker opening and see if buyers step in and take a pullback as an opportunity to buy or if we see this resistance we ran into as the line in the sand to hold the market in range. So far September is making decent gains, but now we are mid week on quadruple witching, the volatility should pick up speed. That speed maybe an out of control train to be watchful of.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices m/m, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 11:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell AIR, APOG. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, SMTS and after the bell CKR, ORCL, RIMM. Friday nothing due out.
