Tuesday left a red mark across the markets on higher volume, for distribution days on the NYSE, Nasdaq and all futures. Market breadth was also harsh throughout the day with a heavy A/D and U/D, with a closing TRIN at 3.35 very bearish. The VIX closed at 29.15, highest level we’ve seen since July 13th. Gold closed down $3.50 at $957 and oil down $1.69 to $68.27 a barrel.
Each index (NDX, COMPX, SPX, Dow) all closed with the CCI just into negative territory, MACD trying to cross down, Stochastics down with the lines open, RSI also pointed down. All also closed under the 10dma and 20dema. Each index is just over 38.2% support on the leg up off the July 8ths lows The Dow 9034.47, COMPX 1932.49, 1563.67 NDX, and SPX 974.47 are the levels to watch for support. 50dma’s are also nearing as we pullback and the 8/17 swing lows. For plenty of near term support on the indexes.
Futures traded into the weekly pivots and daily today. Which clears that up early in our week and leaves us now to look into what Wednesday will bring. With the extreme 3.35 TRIN, overbought and divergence signals on the 65 minute charts on indexes and 60 minute futures. We look for some retracement into Wednesday morning. Like to see 1011.75 area on the ES and 1620.25 on the NQ to retest levels overhead and then resume the selling. Since the ES took out 1014.5 and the NQ 1602.25 we look for further downside yet to come after a retracement. 989 should provide support on the ES and if that cannot hold onto 975.5 swing low is very possible. The NQ 1584.25 and onto 1561.25. Each index has 38.2% support outlined above, that will be first support and if those break down the market is not going to be able to keep profit takers from the panic button.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market JOYG, ZLC and after the bell PSS, HOV,MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, FLOW, MOV, SCMR and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA, WIND. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -40.17 at 1968.89. Support: 1957.43, 1932.49 38.2%, 1920.75 50dma, 1893.26. Resistance: 2001.39, 2023.57, 2039.36, 2063.52 50% on weekly
SPX (S&P 500) closed -22.58 at 998.04. Support: 991.55, 974.47 38.2%, 954.39. Resistance: 1012.78, 1022.97, 1030.23, 1039.47.
