Tuesday started the week off with a very narrow range, but a win for the bulls. Volume was higher on the NYSE and Nasdaq than Friday’s, but futures fell short of outpacing Friday’s volume. The TRIN closed at 1.63 and the VIX at 25.65. Gold closed up $2.80 at $999.50 and oil pushed higher to $71.19 +2.17 on the day.
The market hasn’t seen a range this narrow since 7/17 on the Nas Composite, 12/26 on the NDX, 7/17 on the SPX, and 9/2 on the Dow. These winding days are dull, but we did have some movement, just very limited. They do come out of the range and move with all this digestion. The market is poised under the 8/28 highs, which are also the highs for 2009, this is a big spot to focus on. (Nas Composite 2059.48, NDX 1668.01, SPX 1039.47 and Dow 9630.20) The banks were a drag on the SPX and Dow today, so they have some room as the Nasdaq sits just under that resistance. The SPX and Dow opened at one side and closed at the other, still very narrow. However, the Nasdaq 100 and composite closed with hanging men, leaving that long lower shadow.
Into Wednesday it will be pretty easy to watch Tuesday’s range for a break. Bracketing is what we can do on digestive days and let the break of the range guide us. Wednesday it will be easy to come out of this range because it is so small. We don’t have any early data to help move the market and the Beige Book at 2 is sometimes a mover, but that time after lunch has been really dead. Now that we are into September and post holiday the market will liven up. Thursday is rollover for futures, so Wednesday and Thursday volume should be picking up to get things rolled and positioned.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:00 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market JOYG and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, MOV and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1651, weekly pivot 1623.50. Support: 1643, 1636.50 gap fill, 1628.50, 1620.25. Resistance: 1655.25, 1660, 1664-1665, 1668.75, 1677
