By Robert W. Colby, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com
Financial stocks are a drag.
The S&P 500 and DJIA broke below previous 14-day lows in the morning but reversed to close on the plus side.
The S&P 500 and DJIA remain below the lower boundary lines of their broken Bearish Rising Wedges and below their popular 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines remain Bearish for both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.
Volume on the NYSE rose by 4%, reflecting increases in both buying and selling.
Breadth ended 24% net Bullish, with a greater number of Advancing stocks than Declining stocks on the NYSE.
Up-Down Volume finished the day 29% net Bullish, with greater Up Volume than Down Volume on the NYSE.
New Highs-New Lows on the NYSE ended at 88% net Bearish.
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential “event” stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.99% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.02% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
6.67% , SANM , SANMINA
3.79% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.48% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.32% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
3.16% , TRB , TRIBUNE
3.54% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
1.62% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
6.07% , HES , AMERADA HESS
1.18% , SWH , Software H, SWH
0.43% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.25% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.40% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
2.99% , BEAS , BEA Systems Inc
1.32% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
4.21% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
1.84% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.63% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
1.07% , PHJ , Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
1.62% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.03% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
6.00% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
4.17% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
1.37% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.78% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
1.22% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
3.09% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
6.47% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
1.76% , TJX , TJX
2.98% , HCR , MANOR CARE
1.36% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.70% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.56% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.37% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
2.76% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
0.94% , BBY , BEST BUY
3.61% , DLX , DELUXE
0.65% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
5.39% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
2.83% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
1.87% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
0.56% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
2.11% , HPC , HERCULES
1.74% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.29% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
2.53% , ADSK , AUTODESK
1.79% , IWM , SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.30% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
0.72% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.34% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-5.58% , COH , COACH
-3.41% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-2.09% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-3.37% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-2.95% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-1.47% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-1.57% , BSC , BEAR STEARNS
-1.08% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-0.73% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-1.02% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-1.96% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-3.70% , PWER , POWER ONE
-3.40% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-2.44% , CFC , COUNTRYWIDE FNCL
-1.35% , MER , MERRILL LYNCH
-0.10% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-1.76% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-1.05% , CC , CIRCUIT CITY STR
-1.59% , WYE , WYETH
-1.84% , CA , COMPUTER ASSOC
-1.25% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-1.39% , AN , AUTONATION
-1.35% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.95% , PHW , Hardware & Electronics, PHW
-1.26% , BBT , BB&T
-1.45% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.02% , LEH , LEHMAN BROS HLDG
-2.37% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-1.09% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.25% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-0.66% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.98% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-0.91% , BLL , BALL
-1.41% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.32% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.51% , XLNX , XILINX
-0.51% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-0.66% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.76% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-2.05% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-1.14% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.27% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.37% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-0.50% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.33% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.33% , CR , CRANE
-0.14% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-0.71% , MIL , MILLIPORE
-0.85% , SGP , SCHERING PLOUGH
Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, 8 rose and 1 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change, Sector
0.94% Consumer Discretionary
0.76% Health Care
-0.45% Consumer Staples
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Overweight. This defensive sector’s Relative Strength made a new 6-year high on 12/5/07, and price made a new all-time high on 12/10/07.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bullish, Overweight. This defensive sector’s price made a new all-time high on 12/10/07, and Relative Strength made a new 6-year high on 11/26/07.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Overweight. The short-term turned down but the long-term trend is still up. Relative Strength made new all-time high on 11/8/07. Price made new all-time high on 10/29/07. The long-term Relative Strength trend has strongly outperformed since 9/27/2000.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. Relative Strength turned up from a low on 11/30/07. And, long term, XLK has been relatively strong compared to the S&P since its low on 7/24/06.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. XLV price moved up to a new 6-month high on 12/3/07. Relative Strength moved up to a new 13-month high on 11/27/07.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. Price and Relative Strength have been chopping sideways since 8/3/07. Longer-term trends appear Bullish.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. On 12/14/07, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength ratio fell to its lowest level in 6 years. Relative Strength has been trending down since 1/5/05. XLY price made a new 14-month low on 11/27/07.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 12/18/07, the XLF/SPY Relative Strength ratio fell to its lowest level in 7 years. Relative Strength has been trending down since 2/20/07. XLF price hit a new 2.5-year low on 11/26/07.
Foreign stock indices have underperformed U.S. stock indices short term, since 11/27/07. The EFA (the EAFE, international developed country stock markets, ex the U.S. and Canada) made a new price high on 10/31/07 and a new relative strength high on 11/27/07. EFA has substantially outperformed long term, since the Bull market started in 2002, and the secular trend is still Bullish. My Top 10 ETF Relative Strength Ranks have been nearly all Foreign for many months.
NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 underperformed the S&P since 11/7/07. But trends in different time frames conflict. Longer term, NASDAQ outperformed from 8/8/06 to 11/7/07, including a new 6-year Relative Strength high on 11/7/07 and a new price high on 10/31/07.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength ratio has been in a neutral trend since 11/7/07. The long-term, the main trend for the Growth/Value ratio (IWF/IWD) has been rising since 8/8/06.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength ratio fell to a new 2.5-year low on 12/17/07. Small Caps substantially underperformed Large Caps since 4/19/06. The main long-term trend is Relatively Bearish for Small Caps.
January Crude Oil Futures eased slightly lower. Oil has declined each of the past 4 trading days. It could be a normal pullback after a previous steeper 2-day upmove last week. Resistance is at the 12/13/07 high of 94.85 and at the 11/21/07 high of 99.29. Oil found support at the 12/6/07 low of 85.82. The U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.
The Energy stock sector outperformed the USO since 11/26/07. Previously, over the 6 months from 5/30/07 to 11/26/07, XLE lagged oil the commodity.
February Gold Futures rose 2 consecutive trading days. This rise appears to be a normal retracement of last week’s losses. Gold remains in a consolidation pattern, with the upper end of the trading range at 855.00 set on 11/7/07 and the lower end at 778.40 set on 11/20/07.
Silver’s main trend is Bearish compared to Gold. The iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV) has been relatively weak since 12/7/06.
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has underperformed Gold Futures since 10/31/07. Price made a new 10-week low on 12/14/07.
Inflation expectations have been recovering since 12/5/07. The short-term trend is up, based on the behavior of the ratio of two ETFs, TIP/IEF.
U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose 2 consecutive trading days. This rise appears to be a normal retracement of last week’s losses. Bonds still could be in a short-term correction since their price top on 11/26/07. Bonds remain reactive to news about the credit crisis: the worse the credit crisis, the higher the Bond prices; the better the credit crisis, the lower the Bond prices.
The U.S. dollar eased slightly lower. Short-term upside price momentum since the oversold low at 74.65 on 11/23/07 appears to have stalled out. Longer term, there could be plenty of overhead resistance and the main trend is still Bearish. The dollar fell 19% from its high of 92.53 on 11/16/05 to its low of 74.65 on 11/23/07, moving it into “oversold”.
Daily Rankings of Major Global Markets, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
2.90% Hong Kong
2.83% South Korea
2.03% Russell 2000
1.82% Gold Mining
1.55% S&P Small Caps
1.41% Dow Utilities
1.41% Commodity Related
1.11% Value Line
0.94% Consumer Discretionary
0.90% 30Y T-Bond
0.84% Nasdaq Composite
0.78% NYSE Composite
0.76% Health Care
0.75% Oil Services
0.72% S&P Mid Caps
0.70% Russell 3000
0.69% Health Care
0.67% Dow Composite
0.66% Wilshire 5000
0.65% Natural Gas
0.65% United Kingdom
0.63% S&P 500
0.63% Computer Tech
0.58% Russell 1000
0.53% S&P 100
0.50% Dow Industrial
0.44% Health Care Products
0.43% Nasdaq 100
0.42% Dow Transports
0.14% Australian Dollar
0.06% Euro Index
0.03% US Dollar Index
0.03% Canadian Dollar
-0.05% AMEX Composite
-0.16% Japanese Yen
-0.17% Swiss Franc
-0.43% British Pound
-0.45% Consumer Staples
-0.97% Disk Drives
-1.24% Broker Dealers