By Robert W. Colby, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com

Momentum: slow and lethargic.

Stock price momentum appears slightly negative since the April Fool’s Day price upsurge, on 4/1/08.

Preexisting Major Trends tend to resume after short-term correction/consolidation phases run their course.

On Thursday, major stock price indexes opened modestly lower but closed modestly higher. Momentum was slow and lethargic. NYSE volume rose by 4% but is still at a relatively modest level.

For this 17-day correction/consolidation phase, a Minor Ripple within a Major Bearish Trend, stock price momentum appears to have ground to a halt. Preexisting Major Trends tend to resume after such short-term correction/consolidation phases run their course.

The “reports” of the day offered a little encouragement. Wal-Mart raised its first quarter earnings guidance. Banc of America Securities upgraded semiconductor stocks to “overweight”. Initial unemployment claims were better than expected. Millennium Pharmaceuticals got a buyout bid from a Japanese drug maker.

The main technical trend still appears to be down for the broad-based stock price indexes. But some days, the fundamental worries are temporarily displaced by hopes for some kind of a rescue, from the Fed, the government, or big investors. Day to day, the stock market has been quite reactive to the news, rumors, and “reports” of the day, which certainly have been plentiful, although not always accurate. These “reports” strike at any unpredictable moment, like bolts out of the blue, disrupting trends and making short-term trading risky. In such a shifty market, be nimble, be quick, and control your risk.

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential “event” stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol , Name

48.87% , MLNM , Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc
1.93% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
4.79% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
1.50% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
8.40% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.84% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.21% , PHW , Hardware & Electronics, PHW
1.39% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.30% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
5.14% , LOW , LOWES
6.13% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
4.21% , WYE , WYETH
5.75% , AMGN , AMGEN
0.94% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
5.13% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
4.58% , NCC , NATIONAL CITY
4.55% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
4.70% , WB , WACHOVIA
3.24% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
3.42% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
3.47% , HAS , HASBRO
4.45% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
6.28% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
2.19% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.05% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
2.86% , PTV , PACTIV
3.11% , KSS , KOHLS
2.46% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
3.27% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
3.50% , DISH , EchoStar Communications Corporation
2.92% , EDS , ELECTR DATA
5.62% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.01% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
2.12% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
8.33% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
2.55% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
2.77% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.40% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
0.78% , SWH , Software H, SWH
2.70% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol , Name

-3.92% , SANM , SANMINA
-5.53% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-8.98% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-7.13% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-3.74% , TJX , TJX
-4.52% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-5.65% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
-2.15% , MOT , MOTOROLA
-1.46% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-3.96% , SOV , SOVEREIGN BANC
-0.23% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.70% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-2.21% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-2.53% , ETR , ENTERGY
-1.43% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-3.71% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
-1.18% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-2.11% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-3.16% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-2.39% , PPL , PPL
-2.02% , BSC , BEAR STEARNS
-1.09% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-2.81% , BBT , BB&T
-0.72% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.10% , CA , COMPUTER ASSOC
-0.63% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-1.29% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-2.71% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-3.03% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-2.04% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-2.18% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-1.29% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-5.36% , CIT , CIT GROUP
-2.22% , GPS , GAP
-0.82% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.98% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-1.00% , ACV , Alberto-Culver Co.
-3.07% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-0.85% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-1.70% , MNST , MONSTER WORLDWID

Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, 6 rose and 3 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change Sector

1.06% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.83% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.79% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.42% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.26% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.25% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.19% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.62% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.71% Utilities SPDR, XLU

Looking beyond the daily fluctuation to the major trends (listed in order of long-term relative strength):

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. On 4/9/08, the XLE/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to new all-time high, confirming a major uptrend.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. On 3/6/08, the XLB/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new all-time high, confirming a major uptrend.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. On 3/28/08, the XLP/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to new 5-year high.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. On 3/31/08, the XLI/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The XLU/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has eroded significantly since its all-time high on 1/9/08, and so Utilities have been slipping in these rankings.

Technology (XLK) Bearish, Underweight. On 2/25/08, the XLK/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 10-month low, confirming a significant downtrend.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Underweight. On 4/3/08, the XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio made another new 8-month low.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. On 4/9/08, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 11-week low, suggesting renewed weakness. On 1/11/08, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 6-year low, confirming a major downtrend.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 3/17/08, both absolute price and the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to their lowest levels in nearly 5-years, again confirming a major Bearish trend.

Foreign stock indexes have shown better relative strength short-term, since 3/24/08. Intermediate term, the EFA (the EAFE, international developed country stock markets, (ex the U.S. and Canada) has underperformed since 11/27/07.

NASDAQ Composite price underperformed since 11/7/07. The minor Ripple trend has improved only slightly since 3/3/08 and appears questionable at best. On 3/3/08, Relative Strength fell to a new 9-month low, confirming a significant downtrend.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio jumped up to a new 12-week high. The Growth/Value ratio (IWF/IWD) may be ending an intermediate-term correction phase.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio broke down to a new 2.5-year low on 1/11/08. It has been trending down since 4/19/06. The main long-term trend is Relatively Bearish for Small Caps.

Crude Oil futures eased slightly lower a day after breaking out to a new all-time high. The short-term trend is still up. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.

The Energy stock sector has underperformed Crude Oil since 12/10/07.

Gold futures eased moderately lower, but the 7-day trend is up. In addition, the 7-year trend is Bullish.

Silver sharply underperformed Gold since 3/5/08. In addition, iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV) has been relatively weak compared to Gold longer term, since 12/7/06. Finally, for the past 28 years, since 1/2/80, Silver has underperformed Gold.

The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) fell hard since 3/14/08. Longer-term, GDX significantly underperformed Gold since 10/31/07. Therefore, GDX trends have been Bearish relative to Gold itself.

U.S. Treasury Bond prices retraced a normal fraction of the previous day’s gains. Bonds’ 7-day trend is up. Bond prices benefit from fears of financial crisis, and they correct when crisis takes a back seat to some other news of the day. U.S. governments have been strong ,while corporate bonds have been weak.

The U.S. dollar firmed somewhat within its sideways consolidation pattern over the past 16 trading days. The minor trend may seem questionable, but the major trend of the dollar is down.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: Traders need to be extremely nimble to keep up with rapid changes in the mass mood of late. The business and financial news has flipped from fear to hope and back again many times in recent weeks, creating an extremely choppy trading environment. Investors’ moods and stock volatility have jumped up and down abruptly with the latest “reports”. When mass psychology shifts so dramatically and unpredictably from hope to fear, without warning, risk control becomes more important than aggressive profit seeking. Stay flexible.

Sentiment/Contrary Opinion: There were 37.4% Bulls versus 38.5% Bears as of 4/9/08, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio remained at 0.97, unchanged from 0.97 the previous week. The ratio’s 38-year range is 0.28 to 17.51, and the median is 1.47.

VIX “Fear Index”, now at 21.98, is relatively normal by Bear Market standards (around 20 to 40) but relatively high by Bull Market standards (around 10 to 20). Longer term, VIX has been in a rising trend since it hit a 13-year low of 9.89 on 1/24/07. The all-time high was 45.74 on 10/8/98. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN “Fear Index”, now at 25.77, is relatively low by Bear Market standards (around 35 to 80) but relatively high by Bull Market standards (around 12 to 26). Longer term, VXN has been in a rising trend since it hit its all-time low of 12.61 on 7/29/05. The all-time high was 114.23 on 10/8/98. VXN measures Nasdaq Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio is 0.79, which indicates moderately Bearish sentiment. Its 4-year simple moving average and median are 0.62, and its 4-year range is 0.35 to 1.28.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio is 1.02, which indicates moderately Bearish sentiment. It is below its 4-year simple moving average at 1.50 and its 4-year median at 1.47. That means customers opened fewer long call options and more long put options than normal. Its 4-year range is 0.51 to 3.04.

Fundamentals: The 2003-2007 Bull Market was fed by abundant global liquidly, M&A, leveraged buyouts, corporate stock buybacks, and the net balance of positive earnings surprises. The unfolding fallout from the subprime credit market crisis has derailed that engine. Economic statistics and corporate earnings have been weakening.

The Primary Tide Major Trend turned Bearish, and that is a strong force. The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Bear Market on 11/21/07 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their respective closing price lows of August, 2007. On 11/7/07, the Transports closed below their 8/16/07 closing price low of 4,671.88. Then on 11/21/07, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed below its 8/16/07 closing price low of 12,845.78, thereby turning the Primary Tide Bearish.

To discover the next Resistance, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the Standard & Poor’s 500 cash index (1,360.55):

Potential Resistance
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,403.45, low of 1/7/2008
1,396.02, high of 2/1/2008
1,388.34, high of 2/27/2008

To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500 cash index (1,360.55):

Potential Support
1,256.98, low of 3/17/2008
1,224.54, low of 7/18/2006
1,219.29, low of 6/14/2006
1,214.45, low of 11/4/2005
1,201.07, low of 11/2/2005
1,168.20, low of 10/13/2005
1,163.23, high of 3/5/2004
1,159.86, low of 5/17/2005
1,153.64, low of 5/16/2005
1,146.18, low of 5/13/2005
1,139.14, low of 4/29/2005
1,136.37, low of 4/20/2005

Daily Rankings of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:

4.79% Biotech & Genome, PBE
4.45% Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.42% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
3.37% China 25 iS, FXI
3.34% Biotechnology, IBB
3.05% Malaysia Index, EWM
2.93% Taiwan Index, EWT
2.73% Semiconductors, PSI
2.69% Biotech H, BBH
2.38% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
2.34% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2.32% Semiconductor H, SMH
2.22% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
2.19% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.00% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.93% Technology MS sT, MTK
1.83% Retail H, RTH
1.73% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.60% Retail, PMR
1.55% Technology Global, IXN
1.55% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
1.53% Mexico Index, EWW
1.51% Technology GS, IGM
1.50% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
1.47% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
1.47% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.46% Singapore Index, EWS
1.44% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.44% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.44% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.43% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.43% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.43% Broadband H, BDH
1.42% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.42% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
1.39% Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.38% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
1.36% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.34% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.34% Networking, PXQ
1.32% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
1.29% South Korea Index, EWY
1.25% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.24% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
1.22% Networking, IGN
1.21% Hardware & Electronics, PHW
1.20% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.19% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
1.19% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
1.18% Building & Construction, PKB
1.16% Software, IGV
1.08% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.08% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
1.07% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.06% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.05% Canada Index, EWC
1.04% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
1.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.04% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.01% Software, PSJ
1.00% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
1.00% Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.00% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
0.99% Internet H, HHH
0.99% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.97% Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
0.97% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.97% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.97% Growth Large Cap, ELG
0.96% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.96% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.95% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.94% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
0.93% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.92% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
0.91% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.91% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.89% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.89% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
0.87% Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.85% Water Resources, PHO
0.85% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.84% Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.84% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
0.84% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.83% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.82% MidCap VIPERs, VO
0.82% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.81% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
0.79% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.79% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.78% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.78% Software H, SWH
0.77% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.76% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.76% Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.73% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
0.72% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
0.72% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.72% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.72% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.71% Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.71% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
0.70% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
0.66% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
0.65% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.63% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.62% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.60% Energy Global, IXC
0.60% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.59% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
0.56% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.54% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.53% Oil Services H, OIH
0.52% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.52% Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.51% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.50% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
0.50% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
0.50% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.49% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
0.47% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.45% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.44% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.43% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.43% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
0.42% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.42% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.41% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.40% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.38% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
0.38% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
0.38% Insurance, PIC
0.38% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.37% Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.35% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.35% Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.35% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.34% Telecom H, TTH
0.34% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.33% Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.33% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.30% Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.30% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
0.27% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.27% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.26% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.25% South Africa Index, EZA
0.25% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.25% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.24% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
0.24% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.23% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.19% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.18% Value S&P 500, RPV
0.15% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.14% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.14% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
0.14% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.12% Energy DJ, IYE
0.11% Global 100, IOO
0.10% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.10% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.09% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.07% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.07% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.07% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
0.07% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
0.06% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
0.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% Dividend International, PID
-0.02% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.06% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.06% Italy Index, EWI
-0.06% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.08% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.08% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.08% France Index, EWQ
-0.10% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
-0.11% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.12% Germany Index, EWG
-0.13% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.13% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.14% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.15% Bank Regional H, RKH
-0.18% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.19% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.19% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.21% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.23% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.23% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.24% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.26% Australia Index, EWA
-0.28% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.29% Utilities, PUI
-0.30% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.31% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.31% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.32% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-0.32% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.34% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.35% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.36% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.37% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.38% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.40% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.41% Global Titans, DGT
-0.41% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.42% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.42% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.43% Utilities DJ, IDU
-0.43% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.44% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.46% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.48% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.55% Utilities H, UTH
-0.56% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.61% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.62% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.64% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-0.67% Spain Index, EWP
-0.71% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.81% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.82% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.05% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.11% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.13% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.46% Austria Index, EWO
-1.94% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.56% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.70% Internet B2B H, BHH