by Robert W. Colby, Senior Analyst TraderPlanet.com

Stock Market: price momentum turned down.

The markets have been in choppy, correction/consolidation modes since the stock market low on 7/15/2008.

On Monday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 cash index (1,278.60) fell 19.60 points or 1.51% to finish below the closes of the previous 5 trading days. It turned down after encountering resistance at 1,313.15, the high of 8/11/2008.

Previously, the S&P was in an irregular firming trend from the intraday low of 1,200.44 on 7/15/2008 to the intraday high at 1,313.15 on 8/11/2008. I am assuming that was nothing more than a normal oversold bounce in a Bear Market. The S&P has been in a long-term downtrend since the intraday high of 1,576.09 on 10/11/2007.

Total NYSE volume has been slowing since the rally started following the low on 7/15/2008, which is typical of the potential Rising Wedge pattern on the price chart.

Short-term day-to-day movements of the stock market appear to be prone to sudden reversals, which may contribute to trader unwillingness to hold positions.

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

8.76% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
1.47% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
0.16% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.75% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.60% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.62% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.89% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.90% , PCG , PG&E
1.41% , KG , KING PHARM
2.46% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
4.79% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.61% , SYK , STRYKER
0.78% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
1.44% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
1.28% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
2.01% , NVDA , NVIDIA
2.87% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.74% , FPL , FPL GROUP INC
0.43% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.39% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
0.17% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
2.45% , FLR , FLUOR
0.16% , LOW , LOWES
0.17% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
0.62% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.25% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.15% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.49% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
0.85% , GLW , CORNING
0.04% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
0.14% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.09% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.30% , FAST , Fastenal Company
0.24% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.14% , PPL , PPL
-0.07% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-1.31% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.09% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-1.08% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-1.83% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-2.13% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-22.25% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
-24.96% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC

-9.39% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-1.91% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-1.65% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-2.28% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-10.20% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-8.28% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.85% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-8.93% , SUN , SUNOCO
-7.84% , VC , VISTEON
-1.57% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-1.73% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.21% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.53% , IGV , Software, IGV
-6.18% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-7.14% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-4.28% , BMC , BMC SOFTWARE
-5.57% , MU , MICRON TECH
-1.84% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.31% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-5.18% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-3.48% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-4.13% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.67% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.18% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.11% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-3.08% , NCC , NATIONAL CITY
-1.64% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.74% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-6.41% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.92% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-3.77% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-2.79% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.64% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.61% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-2.95% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-2.13% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-1.43% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM

Sectors: among the 9 major U.S. sectors, 1 rose and 8 fell.
Major Sectors Ranked for the Day
% Price Change, Sector ETF, Symbol

0.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.41% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.83% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.91% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.12% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.26% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.70% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-3.84% Financial SPDR, XLF

Primary Tide Trends for the 9 major sectors last for years. Here are my up-to-date Relative Strength Rankings, as measured with emphasis on these long-term Primary Tide Trends (listed in order of long-term relative strength):

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. On 8/12/08, XLP /SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 5-year high, again confirming that the long-term trend is up.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. On 8/13/08, the XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio moved up to a new 7-month high, confirming an intermediate-term upside correction.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. Since making a 10-month low on 2/25/08, XLK/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has firmed up, producing a rise in this ranking.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. Since making a 5-month low on 7/2/08, XLI/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has firmed up, producing a rise in this ranking.

Materials (XLB) Bearish, Underweight. On 8/4/08, both the XLB absolute price and the XLB/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to new 3-month lows, thereby suggesting an intermediate-term downside correction.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bearish, Underweight. Since making a 26-week low on 7/11/08, XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has firmed up, producing a modest rise in this ranking. Longer term, on 7/15/08, XLY absolute price fell to its lowest level in 5 years. Since 1/5/05, the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has underperformed substantially.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Underweight. On 8/15/08, XLU/SPY Relative Strength Ratio broke down to a new 4-month low, confirming an intermediate-term downside correction.

Energy (XLE) Bearish, Underweight. On 8/11/08, both the XLE absolute price and the XLE/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to new 5-month lows, thereby suggesting an intermediate-term downside correction.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Underweight. On 7/15/08, the XLF absolute price and the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio both fell to their lowest level in 8 years, again confirming a Bearish Primary Tide Trend. Since 3/23/04, the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio has underperformed substantially.

Foreign stock index EFA Relative Strength Ratio fell to a new 26-month low on 8/15/08 and has been in a falling trend since 5/23/08. EFA is the ETF representing the EAFE, the international developed country stock markets, ex the U.S. and Canada.

NASDAQ Composite Relative Strength Ratio has been in a rising trend since 3/3/08.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio stabilized since making a new 7-week low on 7/23/08. The short-term trend is neutral. Longer term, this ratio (IWF/IWD) has been in an uptrend since 8/8/06, and it rose to a new 4-year high on 7/15/08.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 27-month high on 8/14/08. The long-term trend has been Bullish most of the time since 4/8/99.

Crude Oil September futures contract trend remains down for the short-term. The intermediate-term trend also remains down. The long-term trend remains Bullish. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (AMEX: USO) is not a pure play on Crude Oil, although it generally moves in the same direction.

The Energy stock sector has underperformed Crude Oil since 12/10/07.

Gold futures contract remains in a downtrend since the peak of 1033.90 on 3/17/08. Still, Gold has been in a long-term uptrend since 8/25/1999.

Gold Mining stocks continue to underperform Gold futures.

U.S. Treasury Bond futures contract trend remains up. Bonds made a new 4-month high on 8/15/08 and have been in an intermediate-term uptrend since 6/13/08. Long term, Bonds have been in a neutral sideways trend since June 2003.

The U.S. dollar trend remains up for the short-term. The intermediate-term trend also has turned up. The long-term trend remains Bearish.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: Traders need to be extremely nimble to keep up with rapid changes in the mass mood. The business and financial news has flipped from fear to hope and back again this year, creating higher levels of volatility. Investors might be wise to focus on risk control.

Sentiment/Contrary Opinion: There were 31.8% Bulls versus 45.5% Bears as of 8/13/08, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 0.70, down from 0.78 the previous week. The low of 0.57 on 7/16/08 was the lowest level of the ratio since 1994. The ratio’s 38-year range is 0.28 to 17.51, and the median is 1.47.

VIX Fear Index, now at 20.98, indicates falling Fear since the peak at 28.48 on 7/14/08. Previously, VIX fell from a peak of 32.64 on 3/17/08 to a low of 16.30 on 5/15/08, indicating decreasing Fear. The all-time high was 45.74 on 10/8/98. The all-time low was 9.89 on 1/24/07. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index, now at 23.59, indicates falling Fear since the peak at 33.20 on 7/14/08. Previously, VXN fell from a peak of 35.63 on 1/22/08 to a low of 20.00 on 5/16/08, indicating decreasing Fear. The all-time high was 114.23 on 10/8/98. The all-time low was 12.61 on 7/29/05. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio is 0.75, which indicates Bearish sentiment. Its 4-year mean and median are 0.62, and its 4-year range is 0.35 to 1.28.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio is 0.94, which indicates Bearish sentiment. The ratio’s 4-year mean is 1.50, 4-year median is 1.47, and 4-year range is 0.51 to 3.16.

Fundamentals: The 2003-2007 Bull Market was fed by abundant global liquidly, M&A, leveraged buyouts, corporate stock buybacks, and the net balance of positive earnings surprises. The unfolding fallout from the subprime creditmarket crisis has derailed that engine. Economic statistics and corporate earnings have weakened.

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their respective closing price lows of August, 2007.

The breadth of the market has been in a relatively Bearish trend long term since June 2007. The number of New Lows has exceeded the number of New Highs most days for more than a year, since July 2007, and that is one sign of a Bear Market. On 7/15/08, the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines for the NYSE and for the NASDAQ both fell to new 20-month lows, so major breadth trends remain Bearish.

To discover the next Resistance, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the Standard & Poor’s 500 cash index (1,278.60):

Potential Resistance
1,576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1,552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1,523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1,498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1,440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1,406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1,366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1,335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1,313.15 high of 8/11/2008

To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500 cash index (1,278.60):

Potential Support
1,200.44, low of 7/15/2008
1,168.20, low of 10/13/2005
1,163.23, high of 3/5/2004
1,159.86, low of 5/17/2005
1,153.64, low of 5/16/2005
1,146.18, low of 5/13/2005
1,139.14, low of 4/29/2005
1,136.37, low of 4/20/2005

Daily Rankings of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.87% Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.75% Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.54% Internet B2B H, BHH
2.46% Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.81% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.62% Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.61% Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.51% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.41% Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.28% Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.05% Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.89% Japan Index, EWJ
0.78% Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.57% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.49% Utilities, PUI
0.43% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.40% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.36% Utilities H, UTH
0.25% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.25% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.18% Utilities DJ, IDU
0.17% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.16% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.09% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.04% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.13% Australia Index, EWA
-0.23% Biotech H, BBH
-0.28% Italy Index, EWI
-0.32% Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.38% Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-0.39% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.40% Biotech & Genome, PBE
-0.41% Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.41% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.47% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.48% Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.51% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.51% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.52% Canada Index, EWC
-0.53% Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.54% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.54% Materials VIPERs, VAW
-0.58% Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.59% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.61% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.61% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.61% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.64% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.64% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.65% Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-0.72% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.73% Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.73% Germany Index, EWG
-0.75% Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-0.75% Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-0.77% Nanotech Lux, PXN
-0.77% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.78% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.80% Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-0.81% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.82% France Index, EWQ
-0.83% Spain Index, EWP
-0.83% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.86% Austria Index, EWO
-0.86% Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-0.87% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.87% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.88% Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.90% Global 100, IOO
-0.90% OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-0.91% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.91% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.92% Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.92% Building & Construction, PKB
-0.94% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.98% Telecom H, TTH
-0.99% Global Titans, DGT
-0.99% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.00% Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-1.01% Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.03% Water Resources, PHO
-1.03% Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-1.04% Retail, PMR
-1.05% Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-1.07% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.08% LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-1.09% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.11% Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
-1.12% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.14% Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-1.14% LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-1.15% Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-1.15% Semiconductor H, SMH
-1.15% Healthcare Global, IXJ
-1.15% Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-1.15% Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-1.16% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.16% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.17% Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-1.17% LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-1.18% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.18% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.19% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.20% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.21% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.22% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.22% Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-1.22% LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-1.23% Dividend International, PID
-1.23% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.23% Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-1.25% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.26% Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-1.26% Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-1.26% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.27% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.27% IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-1.28% Biotechnology, IBB
-1.28% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-1.28% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.29% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.30% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.31% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.31% MidCap VIPERs, VO
-1.31% Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.31% Insurance, PIC
-1.31% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.32% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.32% Technology Global, IXN
-1.34% Oil & Gas, PXJ
-1.34% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.35% MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-1.35% LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-1.36% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.36% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.37% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.37% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.37% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.37% Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-1.38% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.38% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.39% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.39% Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
-1.39% Growth Large Cap, ELG
-1.41% Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-1.43% Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-1.43% Energy Global, IXC
-1.43% Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-1.43% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.45% Technology GS, IGM
-1.47% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.47% Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-1.48% Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-1.49% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.49% Internet Architecture H, IAH
-1.49% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.49% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-1.49% LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.50% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.50% MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-1.51% Software, PSJ
-1.52% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.53% Software, IGV
-1.54% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.55% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.55% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.56% Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
-1.57% Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-1.57% SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-1.60% LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-1.61% Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-1.62% SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-1.62% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.64% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.64% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.65% Dividend Growth PS, PHJ
-1.65% Growth S&P 500, RPG
-1.66% Oil Services H, OIH
-1.66% Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-1.67% Semiconductors, PSI
-1.67% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.67% Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-1.69% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.69% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.69% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.70% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.70% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.70% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.72% Broadband H, BDH
-1.72% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.73% Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.73% Retail H, RTH
-1.74% Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.76% Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-1.76% Networking, IGN
-1.77% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.82% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.82% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.84% Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.84% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.85% Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-1.85% Software H, SWH
-1.86% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.86% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.89% Dividend Leaders, FDL
-1.91% Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-2.02% Hardware & Electronics, PHW
-2.10% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.13% Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-2.13% Networking, PXQ
-2.14% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.17% Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-2.19% Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-2.28% Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.29% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.38% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.44% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.44% Internet H, HHH
-2.47% Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-2.67% Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-2.75% Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-2.90% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.92% Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-2.96% Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.23% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-3.48% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.50%Financial ServicesDJ, IYG
-3.61% Bank Regional H, RKH
-3.84% Financial SPDR, XLF
-4.00% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-4.13% Taiwan Index, EWT