The manufacturing PMIs for December indicate that the rate of expansion in the global manufacturing sector is accelerating. Only France, India, China, Greece and Australia reported weaker growth. The manufacturing sectors in most countries except Australia, Japan and Greece continue to expand.
In the Eurozone the manufacturing sectors in France and Germany continue to be robust while Ireland, Italy and Spain surprised on the upside. The manufacturing sector in the U.K. accelerated to a very buoyant 58.3.
In Asia Japan’s PMI improved slightly but the manufacturing sector remains in the grip of a recession. The acceleration in the tigers in Asia – China and India – has moderated somewhat while growth in Taiwan is accelerating. Emerging Europe continues be robust.
|
Manufacturing PMI |
Trend |
||
| Country | Dec-10 | Nov-10 | |
| US***** | 57.0 | 56.6 | Expansion accelerated, robust |
| Eurozone* | 57.1 | 55.3 | Expansion accelerated, robust |
| Germany* | 60.7 | 58.1 | Expansion accelerated, robust |
| France* | 57.2 | 57.9 | Softened a tad, robust expansion |
| Greece* | 43.1 | 43.9 | Contraction intensified |
| Italy* | 54.7 | 52.0 | Expansion accelerated |
| Spain* | 51.5 | 50.0 | Expanding again |
| Ireland* | 52.2 | 51.2 | Expansion accelerated |
| U.K.* | 58.3 | 58.0 | Expansion accelerated, robust |
| Japan* | 48.3 | 47.3 | Contracting at lower rate |
| Australia* | 46.3 | 47.6 | Contraction intensified |
| Emerging Economies | |||
| Brazil* | 52.4 | 49.9 | Expanding again |
| China** | 53.9 | 55.2 | Expansion softened |
| Czech* | 58.4 | 57.3 | Expansion accelerated, robust |
| Poland* | 56.3 | 55.9 | Expansion accelerated, robust |
| Turkey* | 56.4 | 56.4 | Robust |
| India* | 56.7 | 58.4 | Softened a tad, robust expansion |
| Russia* | 53.5 | 51.1 | Expansion accelerated |
| Taiwan* | 54.7 | 51.7 | Expansion accelerated |
| Global**** | 54.9 | 54.0 | Expansion accelerated |
Sources: Markit*;Li & Fung**; Plexus Asset Management****;ISM*****.
Sources: Markit*;Li & Fung**; Plexus Asset Management****;ISM*****
It is apparent that the global manufacturing PMI has bottomed and an upward trend is likely to be maintained in coming months.
Sources: Markit; Li & Fung; Plexus Asset Management; ISM.
Growth in global industrial production on a year-ago basis is likely to gain momentum in the first quarter of this year.
Sources: Markit*;Li & Fung**; Plexus Asset Management****;ISM*****; I-Net Bridge.
Industrial metal prices will continue to be strongly supported by the acceleration of the global manufacturing sector.
Sources: Markit*;Li & Fung**; Plexus Asset Management****;ISM*****; I-Net Bridge.
The numbers surprised me on the upside and made me feel a tad less sceptical regarding the outlook for the global economy. But I continue to fret about how things will pan out in China given the stricter monetary policies of the PBoC and the potential contagion of the debt crisis in the Eurozone.
