VIX Fear Index fell to 16.09 intraday, its lowest level since 5/1/12. VIX fell from an intraday peak of 27.73 on 6/4/12. This large drop suggests a rapid shift from worried concern to bullish complacency.
Health Care stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 3 years and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 13 years.
Consumer Staples stock sector Relative Strength Ratio remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 13 years.
Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 3 years.
Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 5 months.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,363.67) rose 10.03 points or 0.74% on Tuesday. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days.
NYSE volume rose 22% from one of the lowest levels of the year but remains at a below average level, suggesting low demand for stocks.
Last week, the S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day SMA, where it often tries to make a stand, if only temporarily. Nevertheless, downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market looking out weeks ahead.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 200-day SMA on 7/12/12 and remains systematically neutral. The ratio remains below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 2/3/12, but the 50-200 spread is narrowing.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 7/12/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.07, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/2/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. CRB remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above its 200-day SMA on 7/3/12 and remains neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMAs, but the 50-day SMA has been consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains far below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMAs. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 33.08, 33.66, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA again on 7/6/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/28/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major bearish trend. SLV remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.72% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.87% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
6.59% , NBR , NABORS
2.43% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.83% , CMA , COMERICA
4.63% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.85% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
4.91% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.26% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
3.11% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.44% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.30% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
3.73% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.50% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.69% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
2.85% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
3.85% , AVP , AVON
1.35% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.79% , KSS , KOHLS
5.49% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.24% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.75% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
0.74% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
3.23% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
0.53% , PMR , Retail, PMR
2.25% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
2.68% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
1.14% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.19% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.69% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.70% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
3.05% , AN , AUTONATION
2.38% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.03% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.25% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-6.37% , STT , STATE STREET
-3.93% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-3.58% , CTAS , CINTAS
-3.95% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-4.70% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.21% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-2.98% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-2.19% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-1.37% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-2.74% , KBH , KB HOME
-2.94% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-1.83% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.79% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-2.37% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-1.59% , EMC , EMC
-2.26% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.15% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.42% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-1.49% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.65% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.62% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-1.28% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-3.83% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-2.55% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-1.40% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.36% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-1.06% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-1.37% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-1.69% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.09% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.84% , SNA , SNAP ON
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.43% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.25% China 25 iS, FXI
1.82% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.62% Russia MV, RSX
1.46% Australia Index, EWA
1.44% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.42% South Korea Index, EWY
1.35% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.34% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.30% Austria Index, EWO
1.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.27% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.27% Energy DJ, IYE
1.26% Singapore Index, EWS
1.25% Mexico Index, EWW
1.25% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.24% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.20% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.19% Energy Global, IXC
1.18% South Africa Index, EZA
1.11% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.07% Belgium Index, EWK
1.05% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.04% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.00% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.99% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.97% Germany Index, EWG
0.96% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.95% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.94% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.91% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.90% France Index, EWQ
0.86% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.85% Spain Index, EWP
0.85% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.84% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.84% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.83% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.81% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.79% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.77% Water Resources, PHO
0.76% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.76% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.74% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.74% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.73% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.72% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.70% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.70% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.69% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.69% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.69% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.68% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.68% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.68% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.68% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.67% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.67% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.66% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.65% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.65% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.64% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.62% Canada Index, EWC
0.62% Dividend International, PID
0.60% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.59% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.59% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.59% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.59% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.57% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.56% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.56% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.56% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.55% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.55% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.54% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.52% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.52% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.52% European VIPERs, VGK
0.48% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.48% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.47% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.46% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.45% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.45% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.43% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.43% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.42% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.42% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.40% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.39% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.39% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.36% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.35% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.31% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.31% Sweden Index, EWD
0.31% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.31% Global 100, IOO
0.29% EAFE Index, EFA
0.27% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.26% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.26% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.23% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.21% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.21% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.18% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.18% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.17% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.17% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.15% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.14% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.12% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.10% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.10% Italy Index, EWI
0.07% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.00% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.08% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.13% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.23% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.24% India PS, PIN
-0.26% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.29% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.29% Networking, IGN
-0.30% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.42% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.48% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.65% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.71% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.79% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.83% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.95% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.03% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
