So, here we are, again. World events have cast a shadow over the developing economic light. This, of course, rekindles the fear, especially as gasoline prices rise …
U.S. consumer confidence measures clearly show rising gasoline prices have darkened shoppers’ moods. But that has not yet translated into a perceptible drop in spending.
The last sentence above is key, as we have yet to see those particular numbers for March, but that does not stop speculation about the future …
Shoppers’ worries about juggling rising gas and food prices and other household costs pushed the Consumer Confidence Index down sharply in March. The decline, which followed a three-year high in February and reversed five straight months of improvement, raises questions about shoppers’ ability and willingness to spend in coming months.
Yet, as always, the other side of the story receives scant attention …
The other gauge, which measures how consumers feel now about the economy, improved to 36.9 from 33.8 in February … Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, indicating that while the short-term future may be uncertain, the economy continues to expand.
Yet the news drones on about a single survey mailed (yes mailed) randomly to a mere 3,000 people in a country of 300-plus million …
Consumers were also more glum about the labor market. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 19.9 percent from 21.2 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose to 20.7 percent from 15.0 percent.
Yet reality is what it is, and the facts are what they are …
The government’s February jobs report, released this month, showed companies added more workers in February than in any month in almost a year, and unemployment fell to 8.9 percent, the lowest in almost two years.
Folks, the point here is this – Traders and investors are human, which means we are not immune to the flow of emotion in the news, and there is plenty of it these days. We need to remember that the media designs headlines to grab attention, so it is our job to dig deeper. It is our job to remain flat, emotionless, to get the facts, and then form our own conclusions.
So, watch the jobs report coming out for March. If it is as good or better than February’s report, look to finding ways to make money in a market pointing to a stronger economic recovery, a market that, for now, seems to be ignoring the opinion of 3,000 folks and world events.
Trade in the day – Invest in your life …
