Diminishing Buying Pressure

Highlights based on trading on Thursday, May 24, 2012:

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 8 years.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 7 months and remains systematically bullish.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,320.68) rose 1.82 points or 0.14% on Thursday. NYSE volume fell 8%, indicating diminishing buying pressure.

The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months:

Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
Switzerland Index, EWL
Hong Kong Index, EWH
Japan Index, EWJ
Taiwan Index, EWT
Pacific VIPERs, VPL
Germany Index, EWG
Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
Australia Index, EWA
Netherlands Index, EWN
Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
China 25 iS, FXI
China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
EMU Europe Index, EZU
Brazil Index, EWZ
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take free trial for my weekly report —
click here.

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Sentiment for Contrary Thinking

Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency at the 2012 market highs. That is bearish because when the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean. Some of the most recent data suggests that investors’ sentiment may be beginning to shift away from bullish complacency.

AAII Sentiment: There were 51.64% Bulls and 20.19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/9/12. This was the highest level of bullish sentiment in more than a year, since 52.34% Bulls on 1/13/11. As of 5/24/12, however, sentiment had reversed, with 30.47% Bulls and 38.67% Bears.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment: according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors, there were 54.8% Bulls reported on 2/15/11, the highest since the stock market top in May, 2011. On 5/9/12, there were only 20.4% Bears, the lowest level since 6/1/11. This is still suggesting too many bulls. The latest reading, reported on 5/23/12, shows 38.3% Bulls versus 26.6% Bears.

VIX Fear Index rose to an intraday peak of 25.14 on 5/18/12, the highest level since 12/19/12, suggesting a beginning of a shift toward skepticism from bullish complacency. VIX fell to 13.66 intraday on 3/16/12, its lowest level since 6/20/07, and down from a peak of 48.00 on 8/8/11. That large drop indicated a shift away from fear to bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1376.48, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1281.12, 200-day SMA
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance none.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, JNK/LQD remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 4/16/12.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/14/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 7 months on 5/24/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 5/23/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 5/23/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/23/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 155.57, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/23/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/23/12. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.57% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.27% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
1.92% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
1.77% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
2.52% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
3.65% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.99% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
1.14% , PPL , PPL
0.61% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.60% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
1.28% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.92% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
0.74% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
2.95% , MON , MONSANTO
1.01% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.19% , PEP , PEPSICO
2.90% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
1.96% , AET , AETNA
2.39% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
5.85% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
2.60% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.63% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.56% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
4.55% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.47% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
2.20% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
0.56% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.64% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
3.37% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
1.55% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.16% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
1.83% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
2.20% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.81% , TIF , TIFFANY
-2.58% , EP , EL PASO
-5.07% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-4.83% , EMC , EMC
-12.29% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-4.11% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-1.84% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-3.48% , XRX , XEROX
-4.71% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-2.64% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-3.43% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-3.53% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-0.82% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.08% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-2.59% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.44% , IGV , Software, IGV
-1.89% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-1.08% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-0.68% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.44% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-2.72% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-2.31% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.45% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-3.30% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-0.21% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.98% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-1.11% , TLAB , TELLABS
-1.76% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.56% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-1.03% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-1.24% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.48% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.26% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.59% India PS, PIN
1.53% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.44% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.31% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.14% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.13% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.97% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.95% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.85% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.84% Water Resources, PHO
0.73% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.71% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.69% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.62% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.60% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.57% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.54% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.51% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.50% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.48% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.46% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.46% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.46% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.45% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.43% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.43% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.41% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.41% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.41% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.40% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.39% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.39% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.38% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.37% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.37% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.37% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.34% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.33% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.32% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.31% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.24% South Africa Index, EZA
0.22% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.22% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.21% Dividend International, PID
0.21% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.20% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.20% Mexico Index, EWW
0.20% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.20% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.19% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.19% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.19% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.18% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.17% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.14% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.11% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.08% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.08% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.08% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.07% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.05% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.04% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.04% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.04% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.02% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.00% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.03% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.03% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.06% Global 100, IOO
-0.08% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.10% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.10% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.11% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.12% Russia MV, RSX
-0.13% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.14% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.19% Canada Index, EWC
-0.20% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.20% Energy Global, IXC
-0.20% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.21% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.21% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.26% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.26% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.28% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.38% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.41% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.42% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.45% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.50% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.51% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.52% Australia Index, EWA
-0.56% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.57% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.59% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.59% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.61% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.64% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.64% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.65% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.66% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.66% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.68% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.70% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.72% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.72% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.72% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.74% France Index, EWQ
-0.75% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.82% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.84% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.87% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.94% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.95% Italy Index, EWI
-1.11% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.14% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.16% Spain Index, EWP
-1.17% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.20% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.24% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.31% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.42% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.53% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.60% Austria Index, EWO
-1.74% Germany Index, EWG
-1.76% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.51% Networking, IGN
-2.58% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR