Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows and further below its falling 50- and 200-day SMAs on 11/29/11 and remains clearly bearish. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/30/10, suggesting a persistent Bear trend.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 11/29/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.47% on 11/29/11, remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,195.19) absolute price rose above the highs of the precious 4 trading days on 11/29/11. Stock prices peaked in the first hour then turned choppy with a downward bias. SPX remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

VIX Fear Index fell to 30.56 on 11/29/11, down from a peak 37.53 on 11/1/11, indicating diminishing fear. VIX is down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

There is a strategy that gained over the past 7 months, while most other strategies lost —
NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.

The Colby Global Markets Report
(click here for a no-risk free trial)

Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,195.19) absolute price rose above the highs of the precious 4 trading days on 11/29/11.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.27, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

Given the deep-rooted global fundamental economic problems and the lack of workable solutions, plus the constant attempts of government officials to deny reality and talk the markets up, markets are likely to remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Reward/Risk appears significantly skewed to the Risk side.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 11/29/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) remains bearishly below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearishly below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/25/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 67.4% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 32.6% Bears as of 11/16/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index fell to 30.56 on 11/29/11, down from a peak 37.53 on 11/1/11, indicating diminishing fear. VIX is down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) consolidated with an Inside Day (lower high and higher low) on 11/29/11. TLT remains above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 118.58, 118.32, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) consolidated with an Inside Day (lower high and higher low) on 11/29/11. IEF rose above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/23/11, again confirming a significant uptrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 103.92, 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) remains bullishly above 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.19, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.62.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell further below the lows of the previous 11 months on 11/25/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 11/29/11. USO rose 37% from its October low and appeared overbought by 11/16/11, when it peaked out at 39.74. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.79, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 5 trading days on 11/29/11. GLD remains bullishly above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 162.07, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below the lows of the previous 4-weeks on 11/21/11. SLV remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price consolidated with an Inside Day (lower high and higher low) on 11/29/11. JJC remains below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.98% , DYN , DYNEGY
0.77% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
4.45% , HD , HOME DEPOT
5.40% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
4.02% , LOW , LOWES
0.57% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
5.17% , BBY , BEST BUY
5.01% , MBI , MBIA
0.92% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.31% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
4.48% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
1.04% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
3.59% , BIG , BIG LOTS
3.88% , FHN , First Horizon National
1.96% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
2.45% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.21% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.28% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.07% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
1.85% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.90% , DOV , DOVER
0.41% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
1.54% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.21% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.04% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
2.84% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.57% , HUM , HUMANA
0.91% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.22% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
1.01% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
2.76% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.79% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.52% , EFX , EQUIFAX

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.38% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-9.07% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-0.63% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-10.76% , GLW , CORNING
-6.84% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-8.69% , TIF , TIFFANY
-5.03% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-5.52% , PWER , POWER ONE
-3.22% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-3.11% , COH , COACH
-3.51% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-2.48% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-3.07% , EBAY , EBAY
-3.33% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-3.88% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-1.64% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-2.27% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-0.73% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.18% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-2.07% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-2.73% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.67% , EMC , EMC
-0.29% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-1.78% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-1.49% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-2.42% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-1.17% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.39% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.46% , KR , KROGER
-1.39% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-1.17% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.83% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-1.86% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.97% Mexico Index, EWW
1.89% South Korea Index, EWY
1.86% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.85% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.65% Energy Global, IXC
1.59% Energy DJ, IYE
1.55% Canada Index, EWC
1.53% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.43% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.43% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.35% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.30% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.29% Sweden Index, EWD
1.20% Australia Index, EWA
1.18% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.17% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.10% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.09% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.04% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.92% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.87% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.84% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.81% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.80% Austria Index, EWO
0.79% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.78% Germany Index, EWG
0.76% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.75% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.74% Global 100, IOO
0.69% European VIPERs, VGK
0.67% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.66% EAFE Index, EFA
0.65% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.64% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.64% Dividend International, PID
0.61% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.60% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.58% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.57% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.55% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.53% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.52% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.52% France Index, EWQ
0.50% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.50% Japan Index, EWJ
0.47% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.45% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.43% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.41% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.40% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.37% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.36% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.35% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.35% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.32% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.31% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.31% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.29% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.28% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.27% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.26% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.23% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.23% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.22% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.21% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.19% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.18% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.18% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.15% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.13% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.12% Water Resources, PHO
0.09% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.08% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.07% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.05% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.05% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.05% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.02% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.03% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.03% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.06% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.07% Russia MV, RSX
-0.09% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.15% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.16% Spain Index, EWP
-0.18% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.19% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.19% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.19% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.19% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.23% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.23% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.23% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.23% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.25% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.27% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.28% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.30% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.37% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.39% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.39% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.45% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.52% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.54% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.54% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.54% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.57% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.60% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.61% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.62% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.62% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.62% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.63% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.67% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.73% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.74% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.77% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.79% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.80% Networking, IGN
-0.81% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.82% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.86% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.92% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.06% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.08% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.30% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.33% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.59% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.87% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.95% India PS, PIN