U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs 6-months on 3/8/13.
Most U.S. major stock price indexes rose for the 6th consecutive trading day on Friday. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,551.18) finished up 0.45%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.47%, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average slumped 1.02%. Breadth was positive again: the number of Advances exceeded the number of Declines by 2 to 1.
Although most major stock price indexes remain in obvious uptrends, many daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly, under the surface, while price indexes rose to new highs. Momentum oscillators have remained below their 2011-2012 highs and below their highs of late January. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index, now at 67.49, peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9), now at 12.80, peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
The Art of Contrary Thinking has been calling for questioning overwhelming bullish sentiment. Objective investor sentiment data clearly has demonstrated extremely high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency, matching or exceeding extremes at past market price tops. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Sentiment extremes are a leading indicator of price.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 2/19/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 5 years.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY)fell below its lows of the previous 13 months on 2/21/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bearish on 11/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 3/5/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY remains systematically neutral. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and is no better than neutral.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 3/4/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. EEM/SPY remains systematically neutral. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and is pointing down.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 3/4/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. EFA/SPY remains systematically neutral. Price peaked at 59.59 on 2/1/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 12/17/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. Price rose to a new high on 3/8/13, confirming its preexisting uptrend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 3/7/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. Price rose to a new high on 3/8/13, confirming its preexisting uptrend.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1565.15, highest close on 10/9/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1494.18 50-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1417.83 200-day SMA
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT)price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/5/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again. In the face of obvious price weakness, technical momentum oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, are sill indicating diminished downside momentum and bullish divergences. Support 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 119.67, 120.70, 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF)price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/7/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again. IEF formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low 3 times. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences. Support 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 107.38, 108.07, 108.15, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years, and it seems doubtful that this long-term trend is changing in any sustainable way. Absolute price of JNK is systematically bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/8/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. Longer term, TIP/IEF has been neutral for most of the past 3 years. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and is systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs 6-months on 3/8/13, after closing above its 200-day SMA on 2/21/13. UUP turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.38, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/6/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell to its lowest level in 10 weeks on 3/4/13, again confirming a downtrend for the medium term. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.16, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 33.75, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 2/20/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 2/20/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 2/28/13. SLV/GLD remains neutral below both its falling 50-day SMA and its falling 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 3/6/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. JJC remains systematically neutral, below the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness of Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.21% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
3.22% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
4.89% , MET , METLIFE
4.33% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
5.26% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
3.87% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
4.72% , BBY , BEST BUY
2.50% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
2.36% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
4.52% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
3.09% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.92% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.12% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.99% , ASH , ASHLAND
1.04% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.83% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.44% , KBH , KB HOME
0.80% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
3.73% , C , CITIGROUP
2.77% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
3.58% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
2.63% , ITT , ITT INDS
0.86% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.77% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
1.91% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
1.84% , SYY , SYSCO
0.78% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.79% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.67% , MCD , MCDONALDS
1.12% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
2.90% , NE , NOBLE
1.90% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
0.91% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.72% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.88% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.77% , AFL , AFLAC
-1.55% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-0.66% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.57% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-2.32% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-1.11% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.32% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.04% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.69% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-0.89% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.85% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.51% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.70% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.36% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.96% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-0.53% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.91% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-0.69% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.63% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.85% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.29% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.61% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-0.35% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.07% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.35% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.21% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-1.42% , INTC , INTEL
-0.13% , AON , AON
-2.17% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.82% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-0.20% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.27% India PS, PIN
1.89% South Africa Index, EZA
1.82% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.77% Mexico Index, EWW
1.77% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.48% Russia MV, RSX
1.40% Spain Index, EWP
1.39% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.32% China 25 iS, FXI
1.19% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.12% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.10% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.09% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.06% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.04% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.03% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.02% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.01% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.96% Water Resources, PHO
0.94% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.93% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.93% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.92% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.91% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.91% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.90% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.89% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.87% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.86% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.86% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.81% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.80% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.80% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.79% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.78% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.77% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.75% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.75% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.75% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.73% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.70% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.68% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.66% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.66% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.66% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.65% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.63% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.60% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.55% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.55% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.54% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.50% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.50% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.49% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.49% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.48% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.47% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.47% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.47% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.45% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.45% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.45% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.44% Japan Index, EWJ
0.44% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.43% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.43% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.43% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.42% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.41% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.39% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.39% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.38% Energy DJ, IYE
0.37% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.37% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.36% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.34% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.34% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.34% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.33% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.33% France Index, EWQ
0.33% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.32% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.30% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.29% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.28% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.28% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.27% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.27% Austria Index, EWO
0.27% Global 100, IOO
0.24% Dividend International, PID
0.23% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.21% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.21% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.21% Belgium Index, EWK
0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.18% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.17% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.17% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.15% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.14% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.12% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.12% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.12% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.08% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
0.07% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.06% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.06% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.05% Energy Global, IXC
0.04% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.04% Canada Index, EWC
0.01% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.01% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.07% Networking, IGN
-0.07% Australia Index, EWA
-0.07% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.09% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.20% Germany Index, EWG
-0.20% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.24% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.28% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.29% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.32% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.35% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.36% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.38% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.39% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.51% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.53% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.63% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.66% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.69% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.72% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.04% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
