The U.S. Dollar traded higher ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. In what was probably position squaring ahead of the Fed meeting, the Dollar posted gains against all majors with the biggest gain coming versus the Swiss Franc. The lack of fresh economic news following Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls Report was most likely a contributing factor to the Dollar’s strength.
On Tuesday the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to consider renewing its quantitative easing program by reintroducing its purchase of government bonds and mortgages. Some believe, however, that the Fed is only going to consider extending its monetary policy rather than make an actual change. Either way, investors will be keying in on the language used by the Fed in its policy statement.
Look for the Dollar to gain over the short-run if the Fed remains firm in its policy statement. Any softening in the Fed’s tone will put pressure on the Greenback.
On Monday the Dollar rose close to 1% against the Swiss Franc. The current chart formation suggests the construction of a possible support base. The low end of the support appears to be 1.0400 to 1.0393. The main trend will change up on the daily chart on a trade through the last swing top at 1.0640.
The U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar traded flat as traders are still trying to sort out last Friday’s surprise rise in Canadian unemployment. With the U.S. and Canadian economies linked closely, tomorrow’s Fed meeting is expected to heavily influence the direction of the Loonie. Any attempt at a short-term fix by the Fed is likely to be bullish for the Greenback. If the Fed decides to take a ‘wait and see” attitude then look for the U.S. Dollar to weaken.
The latest talk in Canada which may help hold the currency in a range is that the economy is cooling which could mean the Bank of Canada will refrain from an interest rate hike at its next meeting on September 8.
The Euro broke on profit-taking on Monday. Technically, the Euro traded in an inside range with a lower close. A downtrending angle from the November top at 1.5144 is helping to stop the advance. The uptrend is still intact, but a break through 1.3119 will turn the main trend down.
For the fourth time in a week the British Pound failed to gain upside momentum when it crossed over a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.5967. The main trend is still up, but a break through 1.5819 will turn the main trend down. The failure to breakout over the Fib level could be an indication that the rally is running out of steam, but because of the low volume, the weakness may have been profit-taking. A close over this level is likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside.
Continue to look for the Forex markets to trade in tight and narrow ranges until the Fed’s announcement Tuesday afternoon. It looks as if Bernanke has enough votes to implement a dovish strategy but depending on how the committee assesses the recent economic data, the FOMC may hint at future changes in monetary policy while evaluating fresh data on a month to month basis.
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