In his morning agricultural market notes, MF Global Research Director Rich Feltes said while lower crude oil, a higher dollar and the CRB’s break below its 200 DMA may be pointing to early weakness for grains, the “bottom line” is that the downside is likely limited.

“Fund money still coming in and eastern planting delays will undermine yield expectations in the weeks ahead.Nonetheless, looks like we need another shot of adverse planting weather to push board to new highs,” he said.

Midwest crop tour highlights from Feltes:

MN:–Corn planting is getting wrapped up in a good portion of the state. In my immediate area the corn on bean ground looks good, but the corn on corn needs some heat to getting it going. The 10 day forecast has us in the mid to upper 70’s. Soybean planting in my immediate area is 90% done and should be 95%+ after the weekend. As a state we should be around 55-60% done by Sunday. Things are off to a good start just need some heat.

NB:–Estimate Corn/Bean planting Monday at 90%/50% respectively.½-1 inch rains this week timely and helpful.Good stands on early corn.Big corn movement this week including new crop.

KS:–Generally good shape for row crops and wheat.Soybean planting actively underway.Crop scouts touring Enid, OK area report some improvement in previously frosted wheat. HRW crop overall steadily improving in part on cooler t than normal temps.

IL:–2-4 inches nearly statewide last 24 hours.Estimate corn planting at 18-19%.Scattered C IL corn planting noted before Wed rains.Portion of S IL corn planted will need to be replanted.Water standing everywhere.Old crop corn moving on rallies but farmer cancelling new crop offers.If late week rains occur as forecasted—don’t expect planters to roll again until next Sat. Here some talk of acreage switching to beans in S IL.

OH:Estimate Corn/Bean planting at 32-35%/20% respectively on Monday.Some scattered progress noted this week in S OH.If late week rains occur as forecasted—planting won’t resume until next Sat.OH received ¾-2 inches last 24 hours.

IN:–Estimate corn planting 18-19% completed on Monday.Ground super saturated following 3-4 inches S of Indy and 2-2.5 inches N of Indy. Soils need time and heat to dry out although forecast early next week is still cool.More rain coming Fri/Sat.Unlike last year, highest yielding IN crop areas are not as yet planted.
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