Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Technology (XLK) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 10/9/13 by whipsawing back above its 50- day SMA.
Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 10/9/13 by whipsawing back above its 50- day SMA.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,656.40, up 0.06%) absolute price tried to recover somewhat on Wednesday but could not hold even modest gains. The US stock market limped to a mixed close with more declining stocks than advancing stocks. SPX closed below the open, modestly above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, but still below its widely-watched 50-day SMA.
SPX remains systematically neutral, strictly speaking, below the 50-day SMA but still above the 200-day SMA and with the 50 above the 200. Momentum divergences, lagging volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and politics remain major obstacles to a sustainable upside trend. Subjectively, the SPX trend still looks uncertain for the short-term, day-to-day trend. The SPX trend looks neutral for the medium term, since its May high.
NYSE total volume rose only slightly to a level 3% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE finished mixed on Wednesday, with the UD Volume up modestly and the AD down modestly. The Advance-Decline Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish), and now has fallen back down to its August low.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The day-to-day Minor Ripple trend has turned corrective since.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 10/1/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/3/13 and rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 and rose above its highs of the past 27 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/3/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically neutral on 8/26/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, DBA price has been in a cyclical bear market since peaking at 35.58 on 3/4/11. In addition, DBA has been in a secular bear market since peaking at 43.50 on 2/27/2008.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.82, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 125.15, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 20.45, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.11% , DRI , DARDEN REST
8.92% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
4.63% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
1.48% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
4.16% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.15% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
2.12% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
1.80% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
2.91% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
1.69% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
2.02% , AA , ALCOA
0.24% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.09% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
1.15% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.65% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
1.04% , ETR , ENTERGY
2.27% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
0.13% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.56% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.54% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
1.09% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.61% , TE , TECO ENERGY
1.40% , EXC , EXELON CORP
0.52% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
0.71% , CHD , Church & Dwight
0.94% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
1.36% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
0.43% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.81% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.76% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.36% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
0.47% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.58% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.24% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-6.26% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.33% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.04% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.97% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-4.43% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.96% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-2.87% , GCI , GANNETT
-2.20% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-4.59% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-1.09% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.14% , TIF , TIFFANY
-1.90% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.07% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-0.72% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.91% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-0.59% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-5.40% , MBI , MBIA
-2.20% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.04% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.57% , NCR , NCR
-0.34% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-1.30% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-0.91% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.57% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.32% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.26% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.52% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.53% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.85% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.29% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.85% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.81% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.55% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.88% , India PS, PIN
2.35% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.15% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.56% , Spain Index, EWP
1.48% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.48% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.36% , Italy Index, EWI
1.35% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.15% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.79% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.76% , Russia MV, RSX
0.74% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.73% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.69% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.65% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.52% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.52% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.50% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.49% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.47% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.47% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.46% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.43% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.43% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.43% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.40% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.40% , Australia Index, EWA
0.39% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.39% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.38% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.38% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.35% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.35% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.33% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.32% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.30% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.29% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.27% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.26% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.26% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.25% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.24% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.24% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.23% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.21% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.19% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.17% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.17% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.17% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.17% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.15% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.14% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.13% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.11% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.11% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.11% , Canada Index, EWC
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.10% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.09% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.08% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.07% , France Index, EWQ
0.07% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.06% , Global 100, IOO
0.05% , Austria Index, EWO
0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.04% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.02% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.02% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.01% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.00% , Water Resources, PHO
0.00% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.03% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.03% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.04% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.06% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.06% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.06% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.07% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.07% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.11% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.11% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.12% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.13% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.14% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.15% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.17% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.18% , Dividend International, PID
-0.18% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.18% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.18% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.18% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.18% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.19% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.21% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.22% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.24% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.25% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.25% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.28% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.29% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.30% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.31% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.32% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.33% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.33% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.34% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.35% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.35% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.35% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.36% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.37% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.40% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.40% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.44% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.45% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.45% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.46% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.47% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.52% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.59% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.71% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.72% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.72% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.73% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.76% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.80% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.92% , Networking, IGN
-1.01% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.35% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.04% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.05% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.20% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.43% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1678.34, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1599.41, 200-day SMA
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
