Football season is behind us. Once all the champagne dries off in Seattle, they are in the same spot as the folks in Denver (although a bit happier). They move on and prepare for their next game. You should treat your trades the same way. Past performance is not a guarantee for future results. Move on and prepare for your next play.
FRIDAY’S JOBS DATA
It’s the beginning of another month, and that means jobs data is on traders radar. Thursday’s Jobless Claims were a bit better than expected (331,000 vs. consensus of 335,000) for the week ending February 1. The previous week had a revision of 3,000 more than previously reported. The four-week moving average inched up a bit (250) to 334,000. Market watchers will now give the focus to Friday’s Employment Situation data.
January’s data will be looked at closely following December’s weak number (74,000). The causes for December’s number (weather, shortened holiday season) were highly debated. Analysts and traders will be looking to see if that was a one-time event or if a trend is developing. A negative trend in jobs data could give the Fed a reason to slow down the pace of their current taper to the stimulus program.
Numbers and announce are always difficult to trade. I like trading a short term play ahead of the number. I like buying the February Week 2 E-Mini S&P 500 1700/1800 strangle at 8 points ($400.00) or better. Buying the 1700 put along with the 1800 call we can take advantage of a move in either direction. These options expire on 2/14/14, so we are only in for a short time frame. Since we are long premium, risk is limited to the cost of entry plus fees and commissions. I would look for a target exit of 20 points or better.
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Webinar
For those interested Walsh Trading holds weekly grain webinars on Thursday’s at 3pm central time hosted by our Senior Grain analyst Tim Hannagan. Tim has been ranked #1 by Reuters and Bloomberg in 2011 and 2012 for his most accurate end of year price predictions for soybeans and corn. Registration is free and if you cannot attend live, a recording will be sent to your email upon signup. Register Now
RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.
