* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, the Euro currency and European stocks were given a boost when Greece announced it would buy back up to 10 billion Euros of its outstanding bonds at a price from 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. The positive market sentiment on this news underscores how bad the situation is in Greece–when investors are encouraged that a sovereign government offers to buy back its obligated debt at less than half of face value. Other European investors snapped up German government short-term debt offered on Monday at a negative return, another sign of the bad economic and financial situation still overhanging the EU. Germany on Friday approved a fresh bailout package for Greece. Euro zone finance ministers meet again Monday to further discuss details of Greece’s latest bailout plan. The European markets were also lifted on an improving Euro zone purchasing managers index, although the PMI still showed an overall contraction in November. Meantime, the raw commodity markets were also cheered by news that China’s manufacturing PMI rose to a seven-month high in November. Other Asian countries also posted improving PMI manufacturing numbers Monday. The focus of the market place worldwide remains on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” that is fast approaching. U.S. lawmakers are still jousting on the matter, with not much new. The market place has started to ignore the rhetoric. Most reckon the bluster coming from Washington, D.C. is just normal. The market place presently perceives there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh four-week high overnight as the bulls are gaining fresh upside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 1,431.40 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,413.00 and then at 1,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the November high of 2,694.00 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,675.75 and then at 2,660.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,000 and then at Friday’s low of 12,975. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,100 and then at 13,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullishearly today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today, on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 150
even and then at last week’s high of 150 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 11/32 and then at 149 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today, on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.20.0 and then at last week’s high of 133.22.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.11.0 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading today and hit another fresh four-week low overnight. Bears have fresh downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.34 and then at Friday’s high of 80.53. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at 79.75. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $88.66 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Markets were higher in overnight trading, boosted by the weaker U.S. dollar index and the positive economic data coming out of Asia overnight. Trading has been choppy recently.
