January
23,
2011 HOME EDUCATIONAL
PRODUCTS CONTACT
TONI An online version
of this newsletter is available at http://www.tonihansen.com/Newsletters/current.html. ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— $75 Credit Towards Your
Trading Education Dear Trader, As a special Thank you for following my teachings and
market commentary over the years, I’m offering a coupon code worth $75
off your choice of any of my educational courses located at http://tonihansen.com/courses.html. This code is good through January 31st. (Credit applied at checkout) CODE: TFM120119153609 All my best,
Toni Hansen Daily
Commentary Bulls Push Indices Into
Weekly Resistance (Note:
Unless otherwise stated, the
index
action described below relates to the EMini futures contracts for the
respective indices.
Actual index action may
differ slightly in terms of
pattern formation, although the market bias will remain the same.) FRIDAY’S MARKET
WRAP-UP Market
Snapshot
for January 20,
2011 (6:23 p.m. ET):
Closing
Prices: DOW
12,720.48 (+96.50,
+0.76%), SandP
500 1,315.38 (+0.88,
+0.07%), NASDAQ
2,786.70 (-1.63, -0.06%), Nikkei 225 8,766.36 (+126.68, +1.47%), DAX 6,404.39 (-11.87, -0.19%), FTSE 5,728.55
(-12.60, -0.22%) OIL 98.33, GOLD 1,664.00, SILVER 31.675 EURO 1.2888,
YEN 76.94, BRITISH POUND 1.5564, U.S.
DOLLAR INDEX 80.405 Data Revs Up This week is a busy one for the markets. Earnings season is in full
swing and weighing heavily on market action. Earnings from tech giants
IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), and Intel (INTC) were the primary reasons
the Dow Jones Ind. Average ($DJI) managed to post a gain of nearly 100
points on Friday. This week’s earnings include 11 Dow components. Among
them are McDonald’s (MCD), Apple (AAPL), DuPont (DD), Chevron (CVX),
and Boeing (BA). In addition to earnings, a number of countries will be announcing their
monetary policy positions this week. These include announcements from
the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Federal
Reserve. For the first time ever, the Federal Reserve will include an
outlook on interest rates. The Fed meeting will be a two-day event,
with its policy announcement due out Wednesday afternoon. Dow
Jones Industrial Average (Figure 1) Housing Optimism The latest housing data has been promising for those looking for an end
in sight to the housing crisis. According to the National Association
of Realtors, existing-home sales were up in December to an annualized
rate of 4.61 million units, compared to 4.39 in November. Sales for the
year were up 1.7% compared to 2010. Over 20% of the sales are to
investors and foreclosure inventories remain high, but it’s one of the
first signs we’ve seen that stability is starting to return to housing. Getting Technical The
markets themselves have continued to climb this year, posting another
weekly gain last week. The momentum in the market, however, remains
weak. The indices have pulled higher, but continue to display a lot of
price overlap from one session to the next except in the Dow.
Nevertheless, there are no major reversal patterns forming right now to
suggest that the market will not attempt a stronger test of last year’s
highs yet this month. The SandP 500 ($SPX) still has room to move
and even the DIA is still short of that price level. A solid break of
that price zone, however, is extremely unlikely without the market
first offering another correction on the weekly time frame into next
month. SandP
500 (Figure 2) Index
Wrap-up The
Dow Jones Industrial
Average ($DJI) ended the day on Friday with a gain of 96.50 points, or 0.76%, and
closed at 12,720.48.
Just over half of the Dow’s thirty index components posted a gain. The
strongest performers
were Microsoft (MSFT) (+5.65%), IBM (IBM) (+4.43%), and Hewlett-Packard
(HPQ) (+3.61%).
The losers were Home Depot (HD) (-1.98%) and American Express (AXP)
(-1.79%). The Dow ended the week higher by 2.4%.
Year-to-date, the index is up 4.12%. The
SandP 500 ($SPX) finished the session with a gain of 0.88 points, or 0.07%, and
closed at 1,315.38. The
top performing industry groups were the techs thanks to strong earnings
from Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), and Microsoft (MSFT), while utilities
were the weakest. The top individual percentage performers
were Sears Holdings (SHLD) (+13.03%), Microsoft (MSFT) (+5.65%), and
Suntrust (STI) (+5.19%). The top decliners were Google (GOOG) (-8.38%),
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) (-6.10%), and Capital One Financial Corp.
(COF) (-5.62%). Google (GOOG) had a rough session after its earnings
fell short of analysts’ estimates. The SandP 500 ended the week
higher by 2.04% and is up 4.59% year-to-date. The Nasdaq
Composite
($COMPX) ended the session lower by 1.63 points, or 0.06%,
on Friday and
it closed at 2,786.70. The
index ended the week higher by 2.8% and is up 6.97% year-to-date. The
strongest performers in the
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) on Friday were Sears Holdings (SHLD) (+13.03%),
Microsoft (MSFT) (+5.65%), and Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST) (+3.53%).
The
weakest were Google (GOOG) (-8.38%), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
(-6.10%), and Life Technologies Corp. (LIFE) (-3.26%). Nasdaq
Composite (Figure 3) ECONOMIC REPORTS AND
EVENTS THIS WEEK U.S. Domestic:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -5:00) (New York, Toronto) Jan
25 7:00
AM MBA Mortgage
Index 01/21
Jan 25 10:00 AM Pending Home
Sales Dec-
Jan 25 10:00 AM FHFA Housing
Price Index Nov
Jan 25 10:30 AM Crude
Inventories 01/21
Jan 25 12:30 PM FOMC
Rate
Decision Jan Jan 26 8:30
AM Initial
Claims 01/21
Jan 26 8:30
AM Continuing
Claims 01/14
Jan 26 8:30
AM Durable
Orders Dec
Jan 26 8:30
AM Durable Orders -ex
Auto Dec
Jan 26 10:00 AM New Home
Sales Dec
Jan 26 10:00 AM Leading
Indicators Dec Jan 27 8:30
AM Chain
Deflator-Adv. Q4
Jan 27 8:30
AM GDP-Adv. Q4
Jan 27 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment –
Final Jan International:
Eastern Time Zone (GMT -4:00) (New York, Toronto) Jan
22 19:30 AUD
Producer Price Index (4Q) Jan 23 08:30 CAD Leading
Indicators (Dec)
Jan 23 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Consumer Confidence (Jan A) Jan 23 18:00 AUD Conference
Board Leading Index (NOV)
(Nov) Jan
24 JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (JAN 24)***
Jan 24 03:30 EUR German
Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (Jan A)
Jan 24 03:30 EUR German
Purchasing Manager Index
Services (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager Index
Composite (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager Index
Services (Jan A)
Jan 24 04:30 GBP Public
Finances (PSNCR) (Dec)
Jan 24 04:30 GBP PSNB ex
Interventions (Dec)
Jan 24 04:30 GBP Public Sector
Net Borrowing (Dec)
Jan 24 05:00 EUR Euro-Zone
Industrial New Orders (NOV)
(Nov)
Jan 24 08:30 CAD Retail Sales
(NOV) (Nov)
Jan 24 18:50 JPY Merchandise
Trade Balance Total (Dec)
Jan 24 19:30 AUD Consumer
Prices Index (4Q)***
Jan 24 19:30 AUD Consumer
Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean
(4Q)
Jan 24 19:30 AUD Consumer
Prices Index RBA Weighted
Median (4Q)
Jan 24 21:00 NZD Credit Card
Spending (Dec) Jan 25 04:00 EUR German IFO –
Business Climate (Jan)
Jan 25 04:00 EUR German IFO –
Current Assessment (Jan)
Jan 25 04:00 EUR German IFO –
Expectations (Jan)
Jan 25 04:30 GBP Bank of
England Minutes***
Jan 25 04:30 GBP BBA Loans for
House Purchase (Dec)
Jan 25 04:30 GBP Gross Domestic
Product (4Q A)***
Jan 25 10:00 USD Pending Home
Sales (Dec)
Jan 25 12:30 USD Federal Open
Market Committee Rate
Decision (JAN 25)***
Jan 25 15:00 NZD Reserve Bank
of New Zealand Rate
Decision (JAN 26)***
Jan 25 16:30 NZD Business NZ
Performance of
Manufacturing Index (Dec) Jan 26 02:00 EUR German GfK
Consumer Confidence Survey
(FEB) (Feb)
Jan 26 08:30 USD Durable Goods
Orders (Dec)***
Jan 26 08:30 USD Durables Ex
Transportation (Dec)
Jan 26 10:00 USD Leading
Indicators (Dec)
Jan 26 10:00 USD New Home Sales
(Dec)
Jan 26 16:45 NZD Trade Balance
(Dec)
Jan 26 16:45 NZD Balance (YTD)
(Dec)
Jan 26 18:30 JPY National
Consumer Price Index (Dec)
Jan 26 18:30 JPY National
Consumer Price Index Ex Food,
Energy (Dec)
Jan 26 18:50 JPY BOJ to Publish
Minutes of December
20-21 Board Meeting***
Jan 26 18:50 JPY Retail Trade
(Dec)
Jan 26 18:50 JPY Large
Retailers’ Sales (Dec) Jan
27 GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (Jan)
Jan 27 03:00 CHF KOF Swiss
Leading Indicator (Jan)
Jan 27 08:30 USD Gross Domestic
Product (Annualized)
(4Q A)***
Jan 27 08:30 USD Gross Domestic
Product Price Index (4Q
A)***
Jan 27 08:30 USD Core Personal
Consumption Expenditure
(4Q A)
Jan 27 08:30 USD Personal
Consumption (4Q A)
Jan 27 09:55 USD U. of Michigan
Confidence (Jan F)*** ***
Highly influential
Notice:
The Bastiat Group, Inc. has attempted to verify the information
contained in this calendar, however, any aspect of such info may change
without notice. Foreign economic reports included in this list are only
those deemed “medium to high impact”. KEY EARNINGS
ANNOUNCEMENTS THIS WEEK Monday, Jan 23, 2012
Before: BOH, HAL, LCRY, PETS, STBA, BSRR, TWIN, UBNK, WIBC
During: –
After: ALB, TBBK, CATY, CSX, ELS, FNB, FDEF, HMNF, JJSF, KSU, NBTB,
PKG, PRK,
PLXT, PLCM, PBNY, STM, TXN, TRST, TUES, VMW, VLTR, WDC, WWD, ZION Tuesday, Jan 24, 2012
Before: APD, AKS, ASH, BHI, EAT, CNI, COH, CBE, DD, EMC, FMER, GSBC,
HOG, IIVI,
IGT, JNJ, KEY, KMB, MCD, MDP, MTG, MNRO, OSIS, BTU, PRWT, PVTB, DGX,
RYN, RF,
SMED, SI, SNV, TCB, TRV, VZ, VCBI, WAT During: PTI, SEV, SFST, WFD
After: AMD, ALTR, AAPL, BKI, CA, EFII, ETH, FBC, FIO, HTCH, IBKC, MRTN,
MRCY,
NSC, OMN, PCBK, PVSW, RFMD, STLD, SYK, SMCI, SUPX, TAYC, TPX, TSS,
TRMK, UMBF,
WSBC, WSTL, YHOO Wednesday, Jan 25, 2012
Before: ABT, ATI, AIT, ADP, BKU, BMS, BA, BOLT, CPF, COP, GLW, CRRC,
CFR, DAL,
DOV, EXC, FCFS, FCF, FMBI, GD, HES, HCBK, IGTE, MPX, MWV, MOLX, MSI,
NYB, NVS,
OXY, PJC, PII, BPOP, PX, REDF, RKT, ROK, ROL, RES, SAP, SLAB, SO, STJ,
SWFT,
TEL, ERIC, TXT, UGI, UTX, LCC, GWW, WLP, WRLD, XRX
During: AVX, UVSP
After: AOSL, APU, AMGN, ANEN, AF, BANR, BRKL, ELY, CGI, CTXS, COHR,
CNS, CVD,
CCI, CTS, DRE, ETFC, EGBN, ESSA, FISI, FCBC, HXL, HRC, IPHI, ISSI, KNX,
LRCX,
LOGI, LSI, MLNX, MBVT, MIPS, MUR, NFLX, NE, NFBK, OI, PMTC, QTM, RJF,
RLI,
ROCM, SNDK, SWK, STSA, SUSQ, SYMC, SYMM, TER, TCBI, URI, VAR, WASH, ZHNE Thursday, Jan 26, 2012
Before: FLWS, MMM, ARG, ALK, ABC, AME, ART, T, AN, AVT, BLL, BAX, BGG,
BMY, BC,
CCMP, CP, CRR, CRS, CSH, CAT, CELG, CL, CLP, COLB, CNX, COV, CY, DLX,
ETN, EGN,
EFSC, EQT, FNFG, HSC, ISCA, IVZ, ESI, JEC, JNS, JBLU, KMT, LMT, LYTS,
MKC, MJN,
MEG, MWW, NPBC, NMM, NEI, NOK, NUE, NUTR, ORI, ORRF, POT, PCP, PSSI,
QSII,
RDCM, RTN, RGS, SASR, SHW, STEL, TDY, LG, TWC, UTEK, UMPQ, UA, UBSI,
UCBI, VLY,
WCC, ZMH
During: FRME, MUSA
After: ABAX, ARBA, BNCL, BPFH, BVSN, CLS, CPHD, CB, CRUS, CRBC, COBZ,
CPSI,
CPWR, DWCH, DLA, DV, DLLR, DCOM, EMN, ESIO, ELX, FII, FFIN, FSL, GBCI,
GDOT,
GSIT, HBHC, HEOP, HUBG, INFA, ISBC, JBHT, JNPR, KTEC, KLAC, LSCC, MATW,
MXIM,
MBFI, MBTF, MCRL, MCRS, MMI, NBBC, NST, PFBC, QLGC, RMD, RVBD, RHI,
RRR, RYL,
SCSC, SBCF, CODE, SBUX, STRT, SXL, SIVB, SYNA, TNAV, WRLS, TSRA, TKR,
VRSN,
VPRT, WBCO, WERN, WAIR, WMS, WSFS Friday, Jan 27, 2012
Before: AOS, AHGP, ARLP, MO, ACO, ABFS, CVX, CMCO, DHI, D, EBTX, GHM,
HON,
IDXX, IMGN, LM, LPL, NWL, NEE, NS, NSH, PG, PFS, SCBT, TROW, USAP,
WTBA, WCBO
During: –
After: SCCO Note:
All economic numbers
and earnings reports are in line with those compiled by Briefing.com.
Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this
column and some companies have not confirmed their time, so always
double
check when taking positions overnight during earnings season! (?) = Not
yet confirmed at the time the list was compiled. DISCLAIMER There
is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. Past
results are not indicative of future returns. Prior
to
the execution of any securities trade, you should always consult with
your broker or other financial advisor. The
positions
given and described by the Bastiat Group, Inc. and its employees and
affiliates are for educational purposes only. The Bastiat
Group, Inc. and its members, employees, agents, consultants, analysts,
representatives, content and/or service providers, affiliates,
subsidiaries, successors and assigns (hereinafter collectively,
“The
Bastiat Indemnities”) assume no responsibility or liability for your
trading and investment results. Go to http://www.tonihansen.com/disclaimer.html
for a complete disclaimer. (c)
1998-2011 All information presented is property of
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