Earnings Preview 7/16/10

Earnings season will be in full gear next week. There will be 509 firms reporting, including 129 S&P 500 firms. The firms reporting are some of the biggest and most important bellwethers of the economy, and slice across a wide spectrum of industries.

Included in next week’s line up are eleven of the Dow 30, including American Express (AXP), International Business Machines (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca Cola (KO), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), 3M (MMM) and McDonald’s (MCD). While it will not be definitive, by the end of the week we should have a pretty good idea about how the second quarter earnings season is going to shape up.

The focus will be very much on the earnings, as the economic data schedule is on the light side. The most important numbers will come on Tuesday when we get the Housing Starts and Building Permits data. Thursday brings the Index of leading economic Indicators, and as always the initial claims for unemployment insurance data. We will also get the existing home sales numbers on Thursday.

Monday

  • No reports of significance.

Tuesday

  • New housing starts are expected to have fallen to an annual rate of just 555,000 from an already dismal 574,000 in May. Each new home built generates a huge amount of economic activity. Normally, housing is the key locomotive in pulling the economy out of downturns. But given the huge oversupply built up during the bubble, and the massive inventory of existing homes — especially the shadow inventory of homes that will end up in foreclosure — that simply is not happening this time around. There is also a bit of a hangover from the end of the first-time home buyer tax credit.
  • The best leading indicator of housing starts is building permits. There the situation is not expected to look much better, with permits expected to fall to an annual rate of just 563,000 from 593,000 in May.

Wednesday

  • Nothing of particular significance.


Thursday

  • Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance come out. They fell 29,000 in the last week, to 429,000. That is the lowest weekly level since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. After a huge downtrend from mid-April through the end of 2009, initial claims have become very erratic so far in 2010. Look for them to rise again next week. Last week’s decline was exaggerated by seasonal adjustments that assume that automakers take breaks this time of year to change models. They are not doing so this year. Longer term, we have made good progress, but not good enough. We probably need for weekly claims (and the four-week moving average of them) to get down to closer to 400,000 to signal that the economy is adding enough jobs to make a dent in the unemployment rate. We are a lot closer now than we were last spring when they were running north of 640,000 on a consistent basis, but still have a ways to go.
  • Continuing claims have also been in a steep downtrend of late. That trend was broken last week when they rose by 247,000 to 4.681 million. However, that is down 1.536 million from a year ago. Part of the longer-term decline due to people simply exhausting their regular state benefits which run out after 26 weeks. Federally paid extended claims fell by 255,000 to 4.577 million. However, that is due to even the extended claims running out as a bill to further extend benefits has been stalled in the Senate. Looking at just the regular continuing claims numbers is a serious mistake. They only include a little over half of the unemployed now given the unprecedentedly high duration of unemployment figures. A better measure is the total number of people getting unemployment benefits, currently at 9.002 million, which is down 8,000 from last week. The total number of people getting benefits is now 341,000 below year-ago levels. Make sure to look at both sets of numbers! Many of the press reports will not, but we will here at Zacks.
  • The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is expected to have dropped by 0.5%, more than reversing a 0.4% increase in May.
  • Existing Home Sales are expected to have fallen to an annual rate of 5.10 million from 5.66 million in May. Since existing home sales are recoded at closing, we will probably see some benefit still from the homebuyer tax credit, so the number could surprise to the upside in June, but then fall off a cliff in July.

Friday

  • Nothing of major significance.

Potential Positive Surprises

Historically, the best indicators of firms likely to report positive surprises are a recent history of positive surprises and rising estimates going into the report. The Zacks rank is also a good indicator of potential surprises. While normally firms that report better-than-expected earnings rise in reaction, that has not been the case so far this quarter. While pickings are getting slim, some of the companies that have these characteristics include:

Altera (ALTR) is expected to report EPS of $0.53 versus $0.16 a year ago. Last time out, ALTR beat the consensus by 25.0%, and over the last four weeks the mean estimate has edged up by 0.08%. ALTR is a Zacks #1 Ranked stock.

Apple (AAPL) is expected to report EPS of $3.07 versus $2.01 a year ago. Last time out, AAPL beat the consensus by 37.0% and over the last four weeks the mean estimate has gone up by 3.53%. AAPL is a Zacks #1 Ranked stock.

SanDisk (SNDK) is expected to report EPS of $0.86 versus $0.27 a year ago. Last time out, SNDK beat the consensus by 79.6% and over the last four weeks the mean estimate has gone up by 4.10%. SNDK is a Zacks #1 Ranked stock.

Potential Negative Surprises

Kimberly  Clark (KMB) is expected to report EPS of $1.14 versus $1.16 a year ago. Last time out, KMB disappointed by 0.87% and over the last four weeks the mean estimate has fallen by 0.54%. KMB is a Zacks #4 Ranked stock.

T Rowe Price (TROW) is expected to report EPS of $0.61 versus $0.38 a year ago. Last time out, TROW disappointed by 1.72%, and over the last four weeks the mean estimate has dropped by 1.50%. TROW is a Zacks #4 Ranked stock.

Earnings Calendar

Company Ticker Qtr End EPS Est Year Ago
EPS
Last EPS
Surprise %
Next EPS Report Date Time Daily Price
Ab Electrolux ELUXY 201006 N/A $0.58 N/A 19-Jul DMT 47.86
Amcon Distr Co DIT 201006 N/A $3.11 N/A 19-Jul 53.5
Atheros Comm ATHR 201006 $0.48 $0.03 5.56% 19-Jul AMC 30.25
Bank Of Marin BMRC 201006 $0.56 $0.60 9.80% 19-Jul BTO 31.05
Brown & Brown BRO 201006 $0.26 $0.29 3.33% 19-Jul AMC 19.47
Cache Inc CACH 201006 $0.07 $0.07 -88.24% 19-Jul AMC 4.98
Crown Hldgs Inc CCK 201006 $0.67 $0.66 7.14% 19-Jul AMC 26.17
Delta Air Lines DAL 201006 $0.63 ($0.24) -9.52% 19-Jul BTO 12.01
Equity Lifestyl ELS 201006 $0.68 N/A 0.96% 19-Jul AMC 49.92
First Defiance FDEF 201006 $0.17 $0.29 20.00% 19-Jul AMC 9.23
Halliburton Co HAL 201006 $0.37 $0.30 7.69% 19-Jul BTO 28.1
Hasbro Inc HAS 201006 $0.24 $0.26 62.50% 19-Jul BTO 41.09
Icu Medical Inc ICUI 201006 $0.36 $0.38 -26.83% 19-Jul DMT 34.61
Idex Corp IEX 201006 $0.47 $0.37 12.20% 19-Jul AMC 30.27
Iec Electrs New IEC 201006 N/A $0.10 N/A 19-Jul 5.24
Intl Bus Mach IBM 201006 $2.58 $2.32 1.55% 19-Jul AMC 130.72
Koninklijke Phl PHG 201006 $0.32 $0.07 122.22% 19-Jul 33.32
Lincare Hldgs LNCR 201006 $0.46 $0.33 13.56% 19-Jul AMC 27.24
Mcmoran Explor MMR 201006 ($0.22) ($0.58) 11.11% 19-Jul BTO 11.43
New Oriental Ed EDU 201005 $0.12 $0.07 20.00% 19-Jul BTO 98.05
Noble Corp NE 201006 $1.15 $1.54 8.33% 19-Jul AMC 31.57
Packaging Corp PKG 201006 $0.31 $0.28 0.00% 19-Jul AMC 23.1
Park National PRK 201006 $1.00 $1.42 38.30% 19-Jul AMC 65.5
Petmed Express PETS 201006 $0.38 $0.36 0.00% 19-Jul BTO 18.42
Popular Inc BPOP 201006 ($0.06) ($0.71) 13.33% 19-Jul BTO 2.8
Renaissnce Lrng RLRN 201006 $0.17 $0.14 -11.11% 19-Jul AMC 15.01
Rli Corp RLI 201006 $1.05 $1.32 -3.09% 19-Jul AMC 54.16
S&T Bancorp Inc STBA 201006 $0.32 ($0.37) 29.63% 19-Jul DMT 21.53
Sierra Bancorp BSRR 201006 $0.20 $0.27 0.00% 19-Jul 11.5
Solarwinds Inc SWI 201006 $0.15 $0.14 14.29% 19-Jul AMC 17.83
Steel Dynamics STLD 201006 $0.24 ($0.08) 16.00% 19-Jul AMC 14.65
Texas Instrs TXN 201006 $0.62 $0.25 1.96% 19-Jul AMC 25.4
Tupperware Brnd TUP 201006 $0.97 $0.86 22.58% 19-Jul AMC 43.4
Virginia Commrc VCBI 201006 $0.10 ($0.24) 0.00% 19-Jul 6.92
Zions Bancorp ZION 201006 ($0.55) ($2.94) 21.28% 19-Jul AMC 23
Allegiant Travl ALGT 201006 $0.87 $1.17 0.00% 20-Jul AMC 45.98
Allscripts-Misy MDRX 201005 $0.15 $0.15 0.00% 20-Jul AMC 17.2
Altera Corp ALTR 201006 $0.53 $0.16 25.00% 20-Jul AMC 28.21
Amer Movil-Adr AMX 201006 $0.97 $1.03 -28.24% 20-Jul AMC 49.59
Ameriserv Finl ASRV 201006 ($0.05) ($0.06) 60.00% 20-Jul BTO 1.74
Apple Inc AAPL 201006 $3.07 $2.01 37.04% 20-Jul AMC 251.45
Aptargroup Inc ATR 201006 $0.63 $0.41 9.80% 20-Jul AMC 40.66
Astec Inds Inc ASTE 201006 $0.39 $0.34 85.71% 20-Jul BTO 27.8
Bank Of Ny Mell BK 201006 $0.55 $0.51 20.75% 20-Jul BTO 26.79
Biogen Idec Inc BIIB 201006 $1.08 $0.73 -6.25% 20-Jul BTO 53.43
Boston Scientif BSX 201006 $0.03 $0.20 12.50% 20-Jul AMC 6.59
Cintas Corp CTAS 201005 $0.33 $0.38 6.67% 20-Jul AMC 25.8
Cirrus Logic CRUS 201006 $0.26 ($0.03) 7.69% 20-Jul BTO 17.95
Cnh Global Nv CNH 201006 $0.41 ($0.06) 220.00% 20-Jul AMC 27.04
Courier Corp CRRC 201006 $0.16 $0.14 20.00% 20-Jul 13.71
Cross Timbers CRT 201006 N/A N/A N/A 20-Jul DMT 34.66
Cybex Intl Inc CYBI 201006 ($0.04) ($0.12) -33.33% 20-Jul AMC 1.52
Cytec Inds Inc CYT 201006 $0.67 ($0.01) 24.53% 20-Jul AMC 43.37
Dominos Pizza DPZ 201006 $0.28 $0.21 6.06% 20-Jul BTO 12.77
Fidelity Nat In FIS 201006 $0.45 $0.42 5.13% 20-Jul AMC 27.97
Forest Labs A FRX 201006 $0.86 $0.87 0.00% 20-Jul BTO 28.62
Fulton Finl FULT 201006 $0.15 $0.05 0.00% 20-Jul AMC 10.15
Gilead Sciences GILD 201006 $0.82 $0.65 4.40% 20-Jul 34.9
Goldman Sachs GS 201006 $2.27 $4.93 40.45% 20-Jul BTO 145.22
Hancock Hldg Co HBHC 201006 $0.44 $0.43 -14.89% 20-Jul AMC 34.25
Harley-Davidson HOG 201006 $0.42 $0.27 11.54% 20-Jul BTO 25.01
Ill Tool Works ITW 201006 $0.83 $0.36 3.57% 20-Jul BTO 43.97
Inx Inc INXI 201006 $0.00 $0.04 -500.00% 20-Jul AMC 4.89
Johnson & Johns JNJ 201006 $1.21 $1.15 1.57% 20-Jul BTO 60.26
Juniper Netwrks JNPR 201006 $0.24 $0.14 0.00% 20-Jul AMC 26.86
Labranche & Co LAB 201006 $0.08 ($0.09) -50.00% 20-Jul BTO 4.13
Lee Entrprs LEE 201006 N/A $0.12 N/A 20-Jul BTO 2.74
Linear Tec Corp LLTC 201006 $0.51 $0.25 17.95% 20-Jul AMC 31.11
M&T Bank Corp MTB 201006 $1.26 $0.36 24.24% 20-Jul BTO 88.78
Manhattan Asoc MANH 201006 $0.26 $0.12 113.33% 20-Jul AMC 28.08
Marshall&Ilsley MI 201006 ($0.26) ($0.83) 32.50% 20-Jul BTO 8.22
Marten Trans MRTN 201006 $0.22 $0.20 20.00% 20-Jul AMC 21.33
Mercantile Bank MBWM 201006 ($0.33) ($0.66) 46.15% 20-Jul 5.31
Meridian Biosci VIVO 201006 $0.18 $0.21 7.14% 20-Jul BTO 18.33
Metals Usa Hldg MUSA 201006 $0.29 N/A N/A 20-Jul 14.64
Mgic Invstmt Cp MTG 201006 ($0.96) ($2.74) -10.94% 20-Jul BTO 8.22
Millicom Intl MICC 201006 $1.35 $1.05 12.00% 20-Jul BTO 87.98
Neogen Corp NEOG 201005 $0.19 $0.15 6.25% 20-Jul BTO 26.49
Net Svcs De Com NETC 201006 $0.19 N/A -36.36% 20-Jul BTO 10.7
Peabody Energy BTU 201006 $0.64 $0.49 26.83% 20-Jul BTO 43.2
Peopl Bncp-Ohio PEBO 201006 $0.19 $0.23 -26.32% 20-Jul BTO 15.41
Pepsico Inc PEP 201006 $1.09 $1.02 1.33% 20-Jul BTO 63.16
Pinnacle Fin Pt PNFP 201006 ($0.07) ($1.33) ######## 20-Jul AMC 13.33
Platinum Undrwt PTP 201006 $1.47 $1.69 205.26% 20-Jul AMC 38.5
Polaris Indus PII 201006 $0.67 $0.53 28.26% 20-Jul BTO 60.29
Rc2 Corp RCRC 201006 $0.15 $0.19 15.38% 20-Jul AMC 15.97
Renasant Corp RNST 201006 $0.20 $0.20 -5.56% 20-Jul AMC 14.86
Resources Cnctn RECN 201005 $0.05 ($0.01) 0.00% 20-Jul AMC 13.23
Saba Software SABA 201005 $0.05 $0.05 50.00% 20-Jul AMC 4.9
Seagate Tech STX 201006 $0.79 $0.05 9.68% 20-Jul AMC 14.77
Slm Corp SLM 201006 $0.29 $0.31 34.48% 20-Jul AMC 11.48
Smith (Ao) Corp AOS 201006 $1.00 $0.79 3.06% 20-Jul BTO 53.21
South Finl Grp TSFG 201006 ($0.31) ($1.23) 18.37% 20-Jul AMC 0.28
State St Corp STT 201006 $0.93 $1.04 0.00% 20-Jul BTO 37.84
Stryker Corp SYK 201006 $0.80 $0.73 2.56% 20-Jul AMC 52.56
Supertex Inc SUPX 201006 $0.27 $0.07 -43.75% 20-Jul AMC 26.39
Td Ameritrade AMTD 201006 $0.28 $0.33 -4.17% 20-Jul BTO 15.7
Team Inc TISI 201005 $0.34 $0.29 -33.33% 20-Jul AMC 13.4
Tempur-Pedic TPX 201006 $0.41 $0.22 41.94% 20-Jul AMC 31.79
Texas Inds TXI 201005 ($0.34) ($0.12) -18.07% 20-Jul 29.75
Ual Corp UAUA 201006 $1.74 ($2.23) 38.89% 20-Jul DMT 21.98
Unitedhealth Gp UNH 201006 $0.75 $0.73 51.47% 20-Jul BTO 30.88
Usg Corp USG 201006 ($0.67) ($0.41) -9.68% 20-Jul BTO 13.23
Utd Rentals Inc URI 201006 ($0.25) ($0.24) 1.72% 20-Jul AMC 10.57
Vmware Inc-A VMW 201006 $0.19 $0.09 25.00% 20-Jul AMC 74.45
Waste Connction WCN 201006 $0.45 $0.36 8.82% 20-Jul AMC 36.07
Weatherford Int WFT 201006 $0.07 $0.10 -33.33% 20-Jul BTO 14.81
Whirlpool Corp WHR 201006 $2.18 $1.04 93.08% 20-Jul BTO 94.38
Yahoo! Inc YHOO 201006 $0.14 $0.10 66.67% 20-Jul AMC 15.37
1St Constit Bcp FCCY 201006 $0.18 $0.08 -7.69% 21-Jul 7.75
Abbott Labs ABT 201006 $1.00 $0.90 1.25% 21-Jul BTO 48.02
Aehr Test Sys AEHR 201005 N/A ($0.30) N/A 21-Jul AMC 1.8
Affymetrix Inc AFFX 201006 ($0.06) ($0.13) 22.22% 21-Jul AMC 4.37
Airtran Hldgs AAI 201006 $0.27 $0.35 7.69% 21-Jul BTO 4.93
Alliance Data ADS 201006 $1.18 $0.84 15.97% 21-Jul AMC 58.81
Altria Group MO 201006 $0.50 $0.50 5.00% 21-Jul BTO 21.46
Amb Property Cp AMB 201006 $0.30 $0.34 0.00% 21-Jul BTO 24.36
Amdocs Ltd DOX 201006 $0.52 $0.50 2.00% 21-Jul AMC 29.19
Amphenol Corp-A APH 201006 $0.61 $0.43 7.84% 21-Jul BTO 42.6
Amr Corp AMR 201006 $0.01 ($1.14) -3.03% 21-Jul DMT 7.11
Amylin Pharma AMLN 201006 ($0.29) ($0.36) 3.57% 21-Jul AMC 18.79
Arbitron Inc ARB 201006 $0.10 $0.14 -7.27% 21-Jul BTO 27.12
Arkansas Best ABFS 201006 ($0.38) ($0.62) -32.81% 21-Jul BTO 21.75
Astoria Finl Cp AF 201006 $0.17 $0.04 27.27% 21-Jul AMC 14.31
Atmi Inc ATMI 201006 $0.22 ($0.03) 31.58% 21-Jul BTO 15.29
Badger Meter BMI 201006 $0.49 $0.52 0.00% 21-Jul AMC 39.57
Baidu Inc BIDU 201006 $0.30 $0.16 32.89% 21-Jul AMC 75.64
Banco Latinoame BLX 201006 $0.28 $0.29 -30.00% 21-Jul BTO 12.67
Banner Corp BANR 201006 ($0.32) ($1.04) 68.00% 21-Jul AMC 2.07
Bard C R Inc BCR 201006 $1.37 $1.23 0.81% 21-Jul AMC 78.82
Berkshire Hills BHLB 201006 $0.22 ($0.08) 4.35% 21-Jul AMC 19.01
Blackrock Inc BLK 201006 $2.32 $1.75 -1.64% 21-Jul BTO 153.99
Ca Inc CA 201006 $0.39 $0.42 -8.11% 21-Jul AMC 19.43
Cardinal Finl CFNL 201006 $0.14 $0.08 8.33% 21-Jul AMC 9.48
Cascade Finl Cp CASB 201006 ($0.75) ($0.84) -105.34% 21-Jul AMC 0.5
Check Pt Softw CHKP 201006 $0.52 $0.44 4.08% 21-Jul BTO 33.14
Clicksoftware CKSW 201006 $0.09 $0.08 11.11% 21-Jul BTO 6.05
Coca Cola Co KO 201006 $1.02 $0.92 8.11% 21-Jul BTO 52.85
Cohen&Strs Inc CNS 201006 $0.22 $0.15 -4.55% 21-Jul AMC 21.05
Cohu Inc COHU 201006 $0.13 ($0.13) 100.00% 21-Jul AMC 12.61
Comerica Inc CMA 201006 $0.23 ($0.10) -103.57% 21-Jul BTO 38.79
Commun Trust Bc CTBI 201006 $0.46 $0.39 15.38% 21-Jul 26.83
Core Labs Nv CLB 201006 $0.72 $0.66 2.22% 21-Jul AMC 81.1
Costar Grp Inc CSGP 201006 $0.14 $0.24 7.69% 21-Jul AMC 40.21
Covenant Trans CVTI 201006 $0.16 ($0.22) 37.50% 21-Jul 8.8
Cullen Frost Bk CFR 201006 $0.80 $0.63 5.33% 21-Jul BTO 53.23
Cypress Sharprg CYS 201006 $0.61 $0.74 N/A 21-Jul AMC 12.8
East West Bc EWBC 201006 $0.19 ($1.75) 85.71% 21-Jul AMC 17.72
Eaton Corp ETN 201006 $1.17 $0.23 14.46% 21-Jul BTO 68.95
Ebay Inc EBAY 201006 $0.33 $0.31 0.00% 21-Jul AMC 21.03
Edwards Lifesci EW 201006 $0.44 $0.41 1.27% 21-Jul AMC 55.96
Emc Corp -Mass EMC 201006 $0.21 $0.13 11.11% 21-Jul BTO 20.58
Encana Corp ECA 201006 $0.22 $1.22 80.65% 21-Jul 33.06
F5 Networks Inc FFIV 201006 $0.44 $0.29 10.81% 21-Jul AMC 78.7
Fidelity Nat Fi FNF 201006 $0.38 $0.40 -108.33% 21-Jul AMC 13.85
First Cash Finl FCFS 201006 $0.34 $0.31 2.86% 21-Jul BTO 23.21
First Midwst Bk FMBI 201006 $0.08 $0.00 366.67% 21-Jul BTO 12.81
Freept Mc Cop-B FCX 201006 $1.39 $1.36 6.25% 21-Jul BTO 63.17
Genzyme-General GENZ 201006 $0.35 $0.67 26.32% 21-Jul BTO 53.47
Glaxosmithkline GSK 201006 $0.88 $1.02 8.14% 21-Jul DMT 37.21
Glimcher Realty GRT 201006 $0.15 N/A 15.00% 21-Jul AMC 6.26
Graco Inc GGG 201006 $0.41 $0.19 36.00% 21-Jul AMC 30.54
Hanesbrands Inc HBI 201006 $0.67 $0.42 60.87% 21-Jul AMC 25.85
Hni Corp HNI 201006 $0.11 $0.03 40.00% 21-Jul AMC 26.62
Host Hotel&Rsrt HST 201006 $0.22 $0.27 -27.27% 21-Jul BTO 14.18
Hub Group Inc-A HUBG 201006 $0.26 $0.22 15.00% 21-Jul AMC 32.45
Hudson City Bcp HCBK 201006 $0.28 $0.23 7.14% 21-Jul BTO 12.76
Iberiabank Corp IBKC 201006 $0.63 $0.53 1.54% 21-Jul AMC 54.55
Intersil Corp ISIL 201006 $0.17 $0.11 10.00% 21-Jul AMC 13.08
Intuitive Surg ISRG 201006 $2.04 $1.62 27.71% 21-Jul AMC 335.67
Journal Comm-A JRN 201006 $0.14 ($0.07) 42.86% 21-Jul BTO 3.98
Kinder Morg Eng KMP 201006 $0.40 $0.33 -2.27% 21-Jul AMC 68.38
Knight Transn KNX 201006 $0.18 $0.15 0.00% 21-Jul AMC 20.79
Lance Inc LNCE 201006 $0.28 $0.31 -85.19% 21-Jul AMC 16.97
Lasalle Htl Prp LHO 201006 $0.43 $0.70 -33.33% 21-Jul AMC 22
Lufkin Inds LUFK 201006 $0.30 $0.20 2.56% 21-Jul BTO 41.75
Manpower Inc Wi MAN 201006 $0.21 $0.36 157.14% 21-Jul BTO 46.83
Mattson Tech MTSN 201006 ($0.17) ($0.40) 0.00% 21-Jul 3.95
Media Genl A MEG 201006 $0.46 ($0.22) 119.57% 21-Jul BTO 10.19
Mellanox Tech MLNX 201006 $0.14 $0.05 7.14% 21-Jul AMC 25.36