AUDUSD: The reading comes just a day before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly policy board meeting. Financial markets are currently pricing in a near 100% chance of an interest rate cut from the RBA, with concerns growing about a slowdown in the non-mining parts of Australia’s economy, coupled with increased jitters about the debt situation in Europe. With inflation risks slowing down, the RBA could move rates lower for the second straight month.
We expect a range for today in AUDUSD rate of 1.0130 to 1.0330 (RBA is in a strong position to voice an easing bias this week, but not deliver another 25 basis point cash rate cut until early 2012)
We short AUDUSD at 1.0250 ranges
Stop loss at 1.0330
Target at 1.0180 AND 1.0130
EURUSD: Italy’s emergency budget plan includes stimulus measures aimed at helping local businesses, especially those that boost employment levels. The budget includes a measure to “detax” the IRAP, a regional business tax that is levied on the basis of revenue and headcount as opposed to pure profitability
The budget contained measures that should boost by around EUR25 billion the amount of credit available to Italy’s small and medium-sized companies, which are bearing the brunt of a credit crunch linked to the euro-zone’s debt crisis.
We expect a range for today in EURUSD rate of 1.3410 to 1.3560 (We set to short EURUSD at 1.3560, the pair went up 1.3542 before knock down to 1.3370)
We set BUY order at 1.3320
Stop loss at 1.3250
Target at 1.3380, 1.3460
USDJPY: Speculators increased by more than half their bets that the dollar will strengthen last week, piling on net wagers worth $17.8 billion as of Nov. 29. That represented the largest net position in favor of the dollar since June 2010, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly report on the commitments of traders showed Friday.
The 54% jump in optimistic bets on the dollar’s rise comes during a period of high global tension over the fate of the euro and Europe’s economy.
Traders maintained their views on the yen’s prospects, holding 7% fewer bets that the yen will rise, or a net $6.5 billion. Net contracts on the yen’s strengthening totaled 40,547.
We expect a range for today in USDJPY rate of 77.60 to 78.20 (USDJPY current above 80 mark, be bought last week at 77.45, it time to book the profit, those who wish to hold, please trial stop loss to 77.70 and target further toward 78.20-60)
Bought USDJPY at 77.45 (Close the position)
Stop loss at 76.70
Target at 77.80, 78.20
