The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,205.35) opened higher but soon turned down. SPX fell below the lows of the previous 12 trading days and closed down 1.17%, confirming its short-term downtrend. The path of least resistance still may be down for the short term.
SPX price remains below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend for the longer term.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks.
U.S. Treasury Bonds rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks and again confirmed a bullish trend.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 13 months.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Following a Secondary Reaction bounce in October, a short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/25/11 when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 7-weeks.
A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 12/15/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/14/11. BKF/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/19/11. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/14/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 12/19/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been correcting and consolidating since peaking on 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 12/14/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.
VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 4-months on 12/13/11, hitting 23.27 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to the Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1267.06, high of 12/7/2011
1260.37, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 12/19/11. TLT remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 13 months on 12/19/11. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.80% , PMR , Retail, PMR
1.70% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.28% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
3.44% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.38% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.60% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.94% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.54% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
2.26% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.34% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.17% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.85% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.60% , EP , EL PASO
0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.18% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-19.88% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-1.75% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-2.00% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-2.00% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-1.23% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-3.59% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-1.68% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.23% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.62% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.37% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-8.15% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-0.52% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.72% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.55% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-1.23% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-2.20% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.16% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-1.10% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-1.82% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-1.92% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-6.63% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.04% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-1.17% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-1.71% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.73% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-2.38% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.95% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.77% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-4.65% , C , CITIGROUP
-4.31% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-4.13% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-1.34% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-1.56% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.38% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.27% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.05% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.40% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.35% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.34% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.32% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.29% Spain Index, EWP
0.17% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.10% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.10% Belgium Index, EWK
0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.13% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.19% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.22% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.23% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.25% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.34% Italy Index, EWI
-0.37% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.41% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.41% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.43% France Index, EWQ
-0.45% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.46% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.48% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.55% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.57% Dividend International, PID
-0.71% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.73% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.75% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.76% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.76% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.78% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.80% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.81% Austria Index, EWO
-0.84% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.87% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.87% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.88% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.91% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.92% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.94% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.94% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.95% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.95% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.96% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.96% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.97% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.97% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.98% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.01% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.02% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.04% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.04% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.11% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.11% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.12% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.14% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.15% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.17% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.17% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.21% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.21% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.23% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.24% Germany Index, EWG
-1.27% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.28% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.38% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.38% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.39% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.40% Canada Index, EWC
-1.42% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.44% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.49% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.50% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.51% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.57% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.59% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.61% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.61% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.64% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.64% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.65% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.65% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.68% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.69% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.71% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.71% Water Resources, PHO
-1.73% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.75% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.77% Networking, IGN
-1.77% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.78% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.80% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.86% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.87% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.88% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.89% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.92% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.92% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.99% Singapore Index, EWS
-2.00% Global 100, IOO
-2.08% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.20% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.20% India PS, PIN
-2.22% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.24% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.27% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.30% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.31% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.37% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.38% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.42% Australia Index, EWA
-2.47% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.50% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.58% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.59% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.61% Russia MV, RSX
-2.62% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.62% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.65% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.66% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.70% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.77% Energy Global, IXC
-2.89% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.08% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.19% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.21% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.30% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.54% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.42% South Korea Index, EWY
