Plans are being made and implemented–mostly behind the scenes, and while we are sleeping. Global monetary authorities appear to be printing some money to buy some–without solving the underlying root problems. There are conflicting speculations as to what might be tried next, and it may take hours or days for the markets to figure out what is likely to happen. Look for continuing high volatility, in both directions, and emphasize tight risk control.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,246.96) absolute price rose above the highs of the precious 8 trading days on 11/29/11. Stock prices gapped higher on the central bank news. SPX remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

VIX Fear Index fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks to 27.80 on 11/30/11, down from a peak 37.53 on 11/1/11, indicating diminishing fear. VIX is down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11.

Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 11/30/11 and is looking vulnerable to further weakness.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 11/30/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell hard but still remains bullishly above 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11.
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Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,246.96) absolute price rose above the highs of the precious 8 trading days on 11/29/11.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.27, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

Given the deep-rooted global fundamental economic problems and the lack of workable solutions, plus the constant attempts of government officials to deny reality and talk the markets up, markets are likely to remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Reward/Risk appears significantly skewed to the Risk side.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 11/30/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) remains bearishly below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/25/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 11/30/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks to 27.80 on 11/30/11, down from a peak 37.53 on 11/1/11, indicating diminishing fear. VIX is down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11.VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 8 trading days on 11/30/11. TLT still closed above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) > fell below the lows of the previous 11 trading days on 11/30/11. IEF fell below its 50-day SMA but remains above its 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell hard but still remains bullishly above 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.44 and 22.62.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) bounced moderately on 11/30/11 after falling below the lows of the previous 11 months on 11/25/11, which confirmed a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 8 trading days on 11/30/11. USO rose 37% from its October low and appeared overbought by 11/16/11, when it peaked out at 39.74. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.79, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 7 trading days on 11/30/11. GLD remains bullishly above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 162.07, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days on 11/30/11. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 11/30/11. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.30% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI 18.73% , MBI , MBIA 4.24% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG 7.10% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG 5.09% , IGV , Software, IGV 11.98% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS 7.04% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation 6.05% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL 5.00% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT 6.49% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG 12.87% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC 8.03% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc 3.76% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ 4.46% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY 11.57% , ASH , ASHLAND 3.78% , SWH , Software H, SWH 6.09% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI 3.68% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC 8.84% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT 3.59% , PUI , Utilities, PUI 10.98% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX 6.47% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL 15.34% , X , US STEEL CORP 5.25% , PIN , India PS, PIN 3.79% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV 4.39% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK 7.63% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR 8.14% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company 5.28% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH 9.20% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD 7.34% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT 4.70% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS 5.16% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.97% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-8.06% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-4.07% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-4.88% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-9.97% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-4.50% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-8.29% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-7.42% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-4.18% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-3.73% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.13% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.79% , EP , EL PASO
-0.49% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
-1.56% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.58% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-2.76% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.35% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.82% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-1.19% , LOW , LOWES
-0.06% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.02% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.23% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-0.05% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
9.36% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
8.93% South Africa Index, EZA
8.18% Sweden Index, EWD
7.63% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
7.10% Financial Services DJ, IYG
6.99% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
6.73% Germany Index, EWG
6.67% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
6.56% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
6.41% Russia MV, RSX
6.32% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
6.29% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
6.26% Financials VIPERs, VFH
6.26% Australia Index, EWA
6.25% Italy Index, EWI
6.24% Emerging Markets, EEM
6.22% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
6.17% Financial SPDR, XLF
6.17% Water Resources, PHO
6.17% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
6.15% France Index, EWQ
6.14% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
6.13% Spain Index, EWP
6.05% Netherlands Index, EWN
6.04% Austria Index, EWO
6.00% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
5.99% Financial DJ US, IYF
5.96% Malaysia Index, EWM
5.93% EMU Europe Index, EZU
5.91% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
5.84% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
5.83% South Korea Index, EWY
5.83% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
5.81% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
5.79% Brazil Index, EWZ
5.73% Materials SPDR, XLB
5.68% Microcap Russell, IWC
5.66% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
5.63% China 25 iS, FXI
5.62% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
5.51% Energy SPDR, XLE
5.50% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
5.48% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
5.44% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
5.42% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
5.41% European VIPERs, VGK
5.38% Energy Global, IXC
5.36% Energy VIPERs, VDE
5.28% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
5.28% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
5.26% Indonesia MV, IDX
5.25% India PS, PIN
5.25% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
5.22% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
5.18% Energy DJ, IYE
5.12% Industrial SPDR, XLI
5.11% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
5.11% EAFE Index, EFA
5.09% Singapore Index, EWS
5.06% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
5.05% Canada Index, EWC
5.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
5.00% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
4.98% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
4.98% Latin Am 40, ILF
4.93% REIT Wilshire, RWR
4.92% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
4.91% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
4.81% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
4.78% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
4.72% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
4.66% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
4.66% United Kingdom Index, EWU
4.61% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
4.59% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
4.58% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
4.56% MidCap Russell, IWR
4.53% Networking, IGN
4.52% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
4.50% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
4.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
4.49% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
4.46% Global 100, IOO
4.40% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
4.39% Belgium Index, EWK
4.30% Mexico Index, EWW
4.29% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
4.25% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
4.23% Biotech SPDR, XBI
4.23% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
4.22% India Earnings WTree, EPI
4.18% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
4.17% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
4.17% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
4.11% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
4.10% Hong Kong Index, EWH
4.09% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
4.05% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
4.03% Technology DJ US, IYW
4.01% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
4.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
3.90% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
3.89% Growth VIPERs, VUG
3.87% Taiwan Index, EWT
3.85% Technology SPDR, XLK
3.81% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
3.81% Switzerland Index, EWL
3.81% Dividend International, PID
3.80% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
3.70% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
3.70% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
3.61% Health Care SPDR, XLV
3.59% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
3.53% Dividend SPDR, SDY
3.29% Japan Index, EWJ
3.13% Silver Trust iS, SLV
3.11% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.89% Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.88% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
2.85% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
2.34% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.95% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.79% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.70% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.64% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.18% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.17% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.77% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.73% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.71% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.62% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.60% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.45% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.26% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.29% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.58% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.56% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-4.18% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH