Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) whipsawed back down below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 10/23/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 15 weeks on 10/23/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically neutral on 10/23/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA.

Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/23/12, thereby turning systematically neutral.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,413.11) fell 1.44% on Tuesday. SPX closed below its 50-day SMA for 3rd consecutive trading day. SPX also closed below its lows of the previous 6 weeks.

NYSE trading volume rose 11% to a level 3% below the 200-day SMA. The volume of declining stocks was significantly greater than the volume of advancing stocks on the NYSE, indicating that supply was greater than demand.

The SPX clearly shows lower highs and lower lows since its peak at 1474.51 set on 9/14/12 (the day after the Fed’s QE3 generous gift to banks). That is the definition of a downtrend. Each rally attempt has been weaker than the previous one, and each decline has been weaker than the than the previous one. Failed rally attempts and lower lows may lead the bullish majority to question their assumptions.
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The technical condition of the stock market does not support the months-long excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Fed and ECB plans to buy bonds in unlimited quantities (with fiat currencies printed out of thin air and backed by nothing but a theory and a hope) do not guarantee that stock prices will continue to rise, especially now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
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*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/19/12, thereby confirming a downside correction. QQQ/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. QQQ/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/8/12. The QQQ/SPY 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA since 8/5/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EEM/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically neutral again on 10/10/12, when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. EFA/SPY crossed below its 200-day SMA on 10/23/12. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11. EFA/SPY has been trending down for nearly 5 years, since 11/27/2007, and there is no convincing evidence of any significant change in that major long-term downtrend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral again on 10/11/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/12/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/24/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/23/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.21, 50-day SMA
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1375.34, 200-day SMA
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. TLT whipsawed back up above its 200-day SMA on 10/23/12. TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 124.78, 125.09, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IEF has remained above its 200-day SMA since 4/5/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 106.75, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.38, 108.70, 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned bullish on 10/10/12 when the TIP/IEF 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. TIP/IEF remains above both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12, thereby turning systematically bearish. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 10/15/12. DBA turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. Price remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains well above the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 15 weeks on 10/23/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically neutral on 10/23/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bullish on 10/19/12, when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. GDX/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 .

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12, and SLV crossed above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. Support 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 32.23, 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV/GLD crossed below its 200-day SMA on 10/23/12. SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this bearish signal may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.69% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
7.72% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
7.53% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
5.50% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
7.35% , COH , COACH
5.71% , YHOO , YAHOO
4.02% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
1.81% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.69% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
2.17% , CR , CRANE
3.56% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.92% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.81% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.62% , MAS , MASCO
2.07% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
2.04% , CIEN.O , CIENA
3.11% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
1.65% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
1.83% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
3.42% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
0.98% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
3.03% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
1.74% , TJX , TJX
3.01% , NVDA , NVIDIA
0.31% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
1.24% , SNV , SYNOVUS
0.69% , TGT , TARGET
1.49% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
1.89% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
0.37% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
1.37% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.60% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
1.71% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.06% , DD , DU PONT
-7.63% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-3.80% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-5.12% , XRX , XEROX
-1.94% , ASH , ASHLAND
-1.10% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-3.77% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-2.32% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.49% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.63% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.47% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-3.07% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-5.71% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-3.93% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-1.12% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.06% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-4.95% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-0.90% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-1.45% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-4.11% , MMM , 3M
-1.36% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-4.01% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.88% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-2.54% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.99% , VO , MidCap VIPERs, VO
-1.35% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-4.00% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-1.51% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-2.90% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-2.12% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.22% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.08% , HAR , Harman International
-0.84% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.43% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.43% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.95% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.92% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.48% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.24% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.22% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.21% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.17% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.07% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% Networking, IGN
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.16% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.20% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.22% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.25% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.38% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.40% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.42% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.42% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.44% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.46% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.50% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.52% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.55% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.56% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.60% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.60% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.63% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.65% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.69% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.69% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.72% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.72% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.75% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.76% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.80% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.80% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.81% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.82% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.83% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.90% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.92% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.93% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.95% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.96% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.98% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.98% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.01% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.01% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.01% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.01% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.02% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.08% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.08% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.09% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.09% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.12% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.12% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.18% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.22% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.22% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.23% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.27% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.27% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.29% Water Resources, PHO
-1.29% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.31% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.33% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.34% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.34% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.35% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.36% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.36% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.36% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.37% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.39% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.40% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.42% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.42% Australia Index, EWA
-1.44% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.49% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.51% Canada Index, EWC
-1.55% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.56% Dividend International, PID
-1.59% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.60% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.61% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.63% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.63% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.68% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.69% India PS, PIN
-1.72% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.76% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.77% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.78% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.82% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.83% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.86% Global 100, IOO
-1.89% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.92% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.01% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.04% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-2.05% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.05% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-2.07% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.08% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.12% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.15% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-2.26% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.28% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.31% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.31% Spain Index, EWP
-2.32% Energy Global, IXC
-2.32% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.32% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.33% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.38% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.38% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.47% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.47% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.51% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.54% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.56% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.58% Germany Index, EWG
-2.62% France Index, EWQ
-2.63% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.71% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.79% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.81% Austria Index, EWO
-2.83% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.83% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.87% Italy Index, EWI
-2.87% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.90% Russia MV, RSX
-2.98% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.01% Materials SPDR, XLB