Energy stock sector absolute price rose further above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
Crude Oil and the CRB Index of commodity prices closed above 2-year closing price highs.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.91% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
5.10% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
0.92% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
3.08% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
2.48% , BBY , BEST BUY
0.79% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.43% , UIS , UNISYS
1.32% , AA , ALCOA
1.53% , DLX , DELUXE
1.27% , WPO , Washington Post
1.21% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
1.20% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.15% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
2.01% , NBR , NABORS
0.86% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.37% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.69% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
0.09% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.61% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.56% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.53% , YHOO , YAHOO
0.85% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
1.36% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.25% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
0.53% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
0.51% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.38% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.52% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
1.30% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.20% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.22% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.09% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
2.35% , TER , TERADYNE
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.86% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-1.64% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.28% , MDP , MEREDITH
-2.35% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-1.86% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.81% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.33% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.15% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-2.16% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-4.17% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.19% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.43% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-0.82% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.08% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-4.22% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.25% , NOVL , NOVELL
-0.50% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.41% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.35% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.91% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.17% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-1.63% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-0.27% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-0.45% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.37% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.24% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-0.40% , MBI , MBIA
-0.62% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-0.68% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-0.17% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.35% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.15% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.61% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 12-month highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 12/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 69.95 and 78.10.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 12/22/10 and remains bullish. Support 37.15, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 37.88, 38.25, and 39.09.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/23/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 39.00, 40.15, and 41.06.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/22/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 35.00 and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.32 and 25.69.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price turned bullish as of 12/22/10 when the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 7-month lows on 12/21/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.10, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 12/9/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Thanks to a bounce over the past 3-days, absolute price of XLV is technically bullish. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.79, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 7-month lows on 12/21/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 4-year lows on 12/21/10. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 4-month lows on 12/20/10 and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 5-month lows on 11/30/10 and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish for the long term. This RS Ratio has been in an uptrend for nearly 2 years, since 12/2/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10. This RS Ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/22/10 and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 12/23/20, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 12/23/20, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 98.65 and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price has been correcting and consolidating gains since it rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 12-month highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of GDX rose above 4-year highs on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price has been correcting and consolidating gains in recent days. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 12/7/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/20/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above multi-year highs on 12/21/10, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price appears to be consolidating losses in recent days. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 7-month highs on 12/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price has been neutral/sideways since 11/23/10.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has firmed up moderately since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising RS ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price appears to be losing upside momentum in recent days. USD may have found resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.525 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.525, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 58.8% Bulls versus 20.6% Bears as of 12/22/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.85, which is nearly two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. Bullish Sentiment tends to rise in November and December every year. The ratio was as high as it is now or higher in Decembers of each year 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, and none of these “high” readings led to bear markets. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 12/14/10, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above 2-year closing price highs, thereby confirming the new high in the Dow-Jones Transportation Average set on 12/10/10. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,256.77) consolidated gains on Thursday after rising to another new 2-year high on Wednesday, and thereby reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Over the past few weeks, SPX tested and held above 1173.00, the low of 11/16/10, and the 50-day SMA now at 1207.23 and rising. And SPX held well above the 200-day SMA, now at 1143.74 and rising.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.95% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.88% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.86% South Africa Index, EZA
0.56% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.52% Canada Index, EWC
0.45% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.44% Australia Index, EWA
0.42% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.38% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.37% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.37% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.36% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.35% Energy Global, IXC
0.28% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.26% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.22% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.20% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.20% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.20% Dividend International, PID
0.18% Energy DJ, IYE
0.14% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.13% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.10% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.09% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.09% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.09% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.06% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.05% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.04% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.04% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.03% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.02% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.00% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.00% Germany Index, EWG
0.00% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.00% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.00% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.04% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.04% India PS, PIN
-0.05% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.05% Water Resources, PHO
-0.06% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.06% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% Italy Index, EWI
-0.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.07% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.08% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.08% Global 100, IOO
-0.09% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.10% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.11% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.11% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.12% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.12% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.13% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.13% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.13% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.13% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.14% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.14% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.15% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.15% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.15% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.15% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.15% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.15% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.15% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.16% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.17% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.17% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.17% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.17% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.18% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.18% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.19% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.19% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.20% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.20% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.20% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.20% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.22% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.23% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.23% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.23% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.25% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.26% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.26% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.27% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.29% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.31% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.32% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.33% France Index, EWQ
-0.33% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.35% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.35% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.35% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.35% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.37% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.38% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.40% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.42% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.45% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.45% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.45% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.45% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.48% Russia MV, RSX
-0.50% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.52% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.53% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.53% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.56% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.59% Networking, IGN
-0.62% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.66% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.67% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.69% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.69% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.72% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.73% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.74% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.78% Spain Index, EWP
-0.79% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.82% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.88% Austria Index, EWO
-1.09% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.25% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.27% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.64% Indonesia MV, IDX
