The following ETFs, listed in order of major trend relative strength, closed above previous 2-year closing price highs, thereby confirming their preexisting major uptrends:
Silver Trust iS, SLV
Energy SPDR, XLE
Energy DJ, IYE
Energy VIPERs, VDE
Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
Energy Global, IXC
Commodity Tracking, DBC
Energy SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Industrial and Consumer Discretionary SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratios turned neutral from bullish.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,307.40) fell 0.61% and broke the lows of the previous 11 trading days, thereby confirming a correction or shakeout for the short term. A third down day might be possible, but there have not been 4 consecutive down days since last November. Last Friday, 2/18/11, SPX rose above the highs of the previous 2-years, which reconfirmed its preexisting Bullish Primary Tide Trend for the long term.
Crude Oil rose above 2-year highs, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Gold rose further above the highs of the previous 6 weeks, again reconfirming a bullish trend for the short term.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 4-year highs, confirming a bullish major trend.
Copper fell further below 3-week lows, reconfirming a downside price pullback for the short term.
The U.S. dollar price fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks, and that breakdown reconfirmed a short-term downtrend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.79% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.94% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
0.74% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
5.60% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.54% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.53% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
5.19% , HES , AMERADA HESS
2.58% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
0.84% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
0.79% , D , DOMINION RSCS
2.23% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.59% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
3.40% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.63% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
0.68% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.16% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.03% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.80% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.32% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.79% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.16% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.65% , ED , CON ED
1.20% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
2.56% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
0.96% , MKC , MCCORMICK
1.35% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
1.91% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
0.50% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
0.60% , PCG , PG&E
0.91% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.63% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.61% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.43% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.62% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-7.83% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-5.87% , WPO , Washington Post
-5.69% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-6.88% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-3.77% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.36% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-5.96% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-3.09% , FLR , FLUOR
-4.37% , TIF , TIFFANY
-1.75% , XLI , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-5.98% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-1.94% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-4.33% , FDX , FEDEX
-4.80% , A , AGILENT TECH
-2.27% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-3.96% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
-3.04% , DOV , DOVER
-2.24% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-3.23% , DYN , DYNEGY
-3.43% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-3.01% , DE , DEERE & CO
-3.79% , AN , AUTONATION
-3.78% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-2.05% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-2.81% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-2.83% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-0.83% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-0.70% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-1.58% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-3.87% , COH , COACH
-1.50% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.03% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 15-month highs on 2/13/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 2/23/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 83.27 and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/23/11, thereby turning neutral for the short term. The ratio rose above 2-year highs on 2/17/11, which confirmed a bullish long-term trend. Absolute closed above 2-year closing price highs on 2/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 35.87, 35.38, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.02 and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/23/11, thereby turning neutral for the short term. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 2/18/11, which was a bullish confirmation for the longer-term trend. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 40.13 and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/18/11 thereby turning neutral again. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 2/17/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.24, 36.99, 36.54, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.83 and 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed below its 200-day SMA on 2/22/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting neutral trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK closed above 3-year closing price highs on 2/17/11and remains bullish. Support 25.65, 25.53, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed below its 200-day SMA on 2/22/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting neutral trend. Absolute price of XLF rose above 2-year highs on 2/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 16.19, 16.03, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 17.20 and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 2/14/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/4/11, thereby turning bullish for the short term. Support 28.80, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.82 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 2/11/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 13-month highs on 2/18/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.56, 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.85, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 4-year lows on 2/18/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 31.60, 31.23, 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.21 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 2/22/11,again reconfirming its bearish trend. The ratio turned bearish from neutral on 2/4/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned bearish from neutral on 2/10/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 50-day SMA on 1/20/11, turning neutral for the short term. Long term, the ratio rose above 10-year highs on 1/18/11, confirming a bullish Primary Tide uptrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) turned bearish from neutral on 2/10/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA. Long term, the ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps had been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, from 3/29/2000 to 12/3/10.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/22/11, turning neutral again. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 2/17/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. The ratio turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 2/23/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose further above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 2/23/11, again reconfirming a bullish trend for the short term. Long term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 12/7/10, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1431.1.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 6-week highs on 2/17/11 and tuned bullish, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Silver nearest futures contract price rose above previous 30-year highs on 2/22/11, again reconfirming a bullish major trend. Support 30.265, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: none.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 4-year highs on 2/23/11, confirming a bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell further below 3-week lows on 2/23/11, reconfirming a downside price pullback for the short term. Copper rose above all-time highs on 2/14/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.208, 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.6495.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 3-week highs on 2/23/11, confirming a “flight to safety” bounce for the short term. But the Bond fell further below 9-month lows on 2/9/11, confirming a bearish long-term major trend. Support, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 122.07, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bullish, above 50- and 200-day SMAs. JNK absolute price also remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace since 8/24/10, compared to the more severe price drop of the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 2/23/11, and that breakdown reconfirmed a short-term downtrend. USD fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/11, and that breakdown reconfirmed an intermediate-term downtrend. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 77.00, 76.175, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 53.3% Bulls versus 18.9% Bears as of 2/23/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.82, nearly 1.5 standard deviations above the 20-year mean. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.55, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index rose further above the highs of the previous 2 months to 23.22 on 2/23/11, reflecting a shift toward fear or bearish sentiment among options players. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,307.40) fell 0.61% and broke the lows of the previous 11 trading days, thereby confirming a correction or shakeout for the short term. A third down day might be possible, but there have not been 4 consecutive down days since last November. Last Friday, 2/18/11, SPX rose above the highs of the previous 2-years, which reconfirmed its preexisting Bullish Primary Tide Trend for the long term.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1294.83, low of 2/3/11
1275.10, low of 1/28/11
1271.26, low of 1/20/11
1261.70, low of 1/7/11
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.40% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.23% Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.03% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.94% Energy DJ, IYE
1.80% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.69% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.59% Energy Global, IXC
1.59% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.39% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.90% Italy Index, EWI
0.90% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.88% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.83% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.74% Belgium Index, EWK
0.72% Spain Index, EWP
0.59% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.54% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.52% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.52% Russia MV, RSX
0.50% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.43% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.42% South Africa Index, EZA
0.39% Australia Index, EWA
0.36% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.36% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.36% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.35% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.29% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.28% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.22% European VIPERs, VGK
0.21% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.18% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.18% Japan Index, EWJ
0.16% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.16% Singapore Index, EWS
0.15% Canada Index, EWC
0.13% EAFE Index, EFA
0.12% France Index, EWQ
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.10% China 25 iS, FXI
0.09% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.08% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.05% Global 100, IOO
-0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.09% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.10% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.11% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.12% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.22% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.24% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.25% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.32% Dividend International, PID
-0.32% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.32% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.34% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.39% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.40% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.41% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.44% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.45% Austria Index, EWO
-0.45% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.45% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.49% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.50% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.51% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.51% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.58% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.61% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.62% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.63% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.63% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.65% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.65% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.70% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.73% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.74% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.76% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.77% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.80% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.80% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.80% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.82% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.82% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.84% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.84% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.84% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.85% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.85% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.86% Germany Index, EWG
-0.86% India PS, PIN
-0.88% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.90% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.90% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.91% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.96% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.96% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.12% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.18% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.19% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.27% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.40% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.40% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.43% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.45% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.45% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.46% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.46% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.54% Water Resources, PHO
-1.54% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.55% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.66% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.67% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.68% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.69% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.72% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.73% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.75% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.83% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.85% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.87% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.89% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.92% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.04% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.05% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.07% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.07% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.16% Networking, IGN
-2.31% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
