Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 7-month highs and is approaching a bullish signal, with the 50-day SMA closely approaching the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/9/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.
Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell back below the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, which is bearish.
The CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs.
Copper moved above previous 2-year highs. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,213.40) fell 9.85 points or 0.81% on Tuesday 11/9/10. SPX has retraced a normal 37% fraction of last week’s big gain, which would be a typical minor price pullback within a larger uptrend. Pullbacks ought to be limited in this phase of the stock market. On Friday, SPX closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
18.64% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
6.93% , CVG , CONVERGYS
2.77% , SLE , SARA LEE
3.22% , YHOO , YAHOO
4.29% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
3.75% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
2.12% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.39% , BCR , C R BARD
2.01% , EP , EL PASO
0.19% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
2.76% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
1.14% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.25% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
1.55% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.52% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.52% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.25% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
0.59% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.95% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.46% , TYC , TYCO INTL
0.57% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.18% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.90% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
1.07% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.39% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.74% , MOT , MOTOROLA
0.90% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
0.55% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.75% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.75% , MON , MONSANTO
1.53% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.44% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
0.56% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.64% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.57% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.97% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.32% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
0.68% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
0.84% , DELL , DELL
0.18% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.82% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-1.66% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-3.57% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.38% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-3.90% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.65% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.33% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-3.61% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.35% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.34% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-4.71% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-0.62% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-3.49% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-3.55% , TER , TERADYNE
-2.22% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.35% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.50% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-1.31% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-2.83% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-3.19% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
-1.45% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-3.72% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-4.77% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-2.87% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-1.99% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-1.74% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.75% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.77% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-4.05% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.15% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-2.85% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-3.39% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-2.20% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-6.69% , MBI , MBIA
-4.60% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-2.13% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-3.27% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-2.01% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.59% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-1.16% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 24.76, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 11/9/10 and is approaching a bullish signal, with the 50-day SMA closely approaching the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/9/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 63.26, 69.95, and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 9-month highs on 11/8/10 and is bullish. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.36, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 37.56 and 39.00.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 7-week lows on 11/3/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.59, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 35.00 and 36.16.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 11/5/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.92, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.00, 29.29 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/8/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.70, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/8/10. Absolute price of XLU turned neutral on 11/1/10 when price crossed below the 50-day SMA, which remains above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.25, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.40.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) is below the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, which is bearish. Absolute price of XLF rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.75, 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/2/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish.
The CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 11/9/10.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10, confirming a bullish major long-term price trend. Support 79.84, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10. Trends in all time frames are confirmed bullish. Support 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
Silver nearest futures contract price soared above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10 before reversing sharply.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price moved above previous 2-year highs on 11/9/10. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.7035, 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 months days on 11/9/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Support 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 5-month highs on 10/27/10. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 10/29/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby demonstrating bearish long-term price momentum. Sentiment has been extremely bearish for months, but it appears that bearish fundamentals might be overcoming the bottom fishing temptation. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.61, 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 46.7% Bulls versus 24.4% Bears as of 11/3/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at a moderately above average 1.91, up from an extreme low of 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from and extreme peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.
VIX Fear Index collapsed to 17.92 on 11/5/10, down from 22.54 on 11/1/10. This indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase obvious price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,213.40) fell 9.85 points or 0.81% on Tuesday 11/9/10. SPX has retraced a normal 37% fraction of last week’s big gain, which would be a typical minor price pullback within a larger uptrend. Pullbacks ought to be limited in this phase of the stock market. On Friday, SPX closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1177.65, low of 11/1/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.19% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.65% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.55% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.31% Russia MV, RSX
0.21% Singapore Index, EWS
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.13% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.14% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.14% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.19% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.20% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.28% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.28% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.35% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.35% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.36% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.38% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.41% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.43% Energy Global, IXC
-0.43% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.46% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.49% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.51% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.52% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.52% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.53% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.54% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.56% Italy Index, EWI
-0.59% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.60% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.64% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.64% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.65% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.67% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.68% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.68% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.71% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.71% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.71% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.72% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.72% India PS, PIN
-0.73% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.73% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.74% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.74% Global 100, IOO
-0.75% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.75% Networking, IGN
-0.76% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.78% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.78% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.80% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.81% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.82% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.84% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.86% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.86% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.89% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.90% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.90% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.91% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.91% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.92% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.92% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.92% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.92% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.93% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.94% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.96% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.99% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.99% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.99% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.00% Canada Index, EWC
-1.00% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.02% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.04% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.04% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.04% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.04% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.05% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.05% Water Resources, PHO
-1.05% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.06% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.06% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.07% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.07% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.07% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.08% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.11% Germany Index, EWG
-1.16% France Index, EWQ
-1.16% Spain Index, EWP
-1.19% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.23% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.24% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.26% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.27% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.27% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.28% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.31% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.32% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.33% Austria Index, EWO
-1.33% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.35% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.41% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.41% Dividend International, PID
-1.43% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.44% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.45% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.59% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.67% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.67% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.69% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.69% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.70% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.74% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.76% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.76% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.78% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.87% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.92% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.93% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.04% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.09% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.09% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.13% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.13% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.15% Australia Index, EWA
-2.20% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.22% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.57% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.61% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-3.90% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-3.99% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-4.05% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
