S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,319.44) rose 9.25 points or 0.71% on Tuesday. SPX closed above the closing price levels of the previous 13 trading days. Trading volume rose slightly on the NYSE and fell slightly on the Nasdaq–both remain at low levels, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. SPX faces chart congestion (resistance) in the 1319-1333 zone. The short-term, 9-day trend is obviously up, but the larger, intermediate-term trend over the past 5 weeks still may prove to be corrective.
Energy SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Financial SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 3-month lows and remains bearish.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.66% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
0.72% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
4.71% , IP , INTL PAPER
4.04% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
3.84% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
1.61% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
5.20% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.43% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
0.65% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
0.42% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.78% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.95% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.78% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.12% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.86% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.92% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
0.96% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.61% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
2.05% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
2.05% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
1.06% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
0.98% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.64% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
0.67% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
3.32% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
1.87% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
0.46% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.88% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.31% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
2.10% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
3.11% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
1.86% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
1.03% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.61% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-4.25% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-3.44% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.56% , FHN , First Horizon National
-2.44% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-1.69% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.90% , KBH , KB HOME
-3.35% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.28% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.03% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-1.65% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-1.86% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.26% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.63% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-1.23% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.83% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-0.96% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-1.40% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.91% , MET , METLIFE
-1.59% , GLW , CORNING
-0.37% , NCR , NCR
-0.77% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.01% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-0.79% , TGT , TARGET
-0.25% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-1.10% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-0.82% , USB , US BANCORP
-0.07% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-0.73% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.33% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-0.72% , MAS , MASCO
-1.04% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.29% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 3/29/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year closing price highs on 3/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 76.99, 2.90, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 83.27 and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 3/21/11 and remains bullish. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/22/11 and is neutral. Support 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 38.09, 39.02, and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) appears to be in a 6-weeks trading range and remains neutral. Absolute price also remains neutral. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.58, 40.02, 40.13, and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/23/11, turning bullish again. In addition, absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 39.64, 40.83 and 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) just gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK fell below 14-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/21/11 and is close to turning bearish again. Absolute price remains neutral. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.23, 33.37, and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 3-month lows on 3/29/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 10-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.46, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains neutral. The Ratio is close to turning bearish again, however. Absolute price remains neutral. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.96 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 3-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been rising since making a low on 2/22/11. The trend is technically neutral, with the Ratio between 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 11-month lows on 3/16/11, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio is neutral between is 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 3/25/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 11-week highs on 3/21/11 and remains bullish. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 3/21/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. The ratio turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the previous 4 days lows on 3/29/11 but reversed to close modestly higher. The short-term trend appears uncertain. The larger trend remains bullish: Oil rose above 2-year highs on 3/7/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 106.69, 106.95, 110.30, 111.34, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.
Gold nearest futures contract price eased slightly lower on 3/29/11. Gold fell below 5-day lows on 3/28/11, confirming a minor downside correction. Support 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1448.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/28/11 and, therefore, is downgraded from neutral to bearish.
Silver nearest futures contract price eased slightly lower on 3/29/11. Silver fell below 2-day lows on 3/28/11, signaling a minor downside correction. Silver rose above its 31-year high on 3/24/11, confirming its major uptrend. Support 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 38.18, 39.80, 40.50, and 50.35.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 3/29/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 3/29/11 before reversing to close slightly higher. Copper appears to be in a downside correction since peaking at 4.6575 on 2/15/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.2665, 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 12-day lows on 3/29/11. The short-term trend appears bearish. The larger 6-week trend appears uncertain. Support 118.05, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 122.08, 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) turned neutral on 3/10/11 by falling below 6-week lows and below its 50-day SMA. JNK absolute price also turned neutral by falling below 7-week lows and below its 50-day SMA.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace since 8/24/10, compared to the more severe price drop of the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 6-day highs on 3/26/11 before surrendering most of its gain by the close. The short-term trend appears uncertain. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 75.505, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 76.695, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 50.6% Bulls versus 22.4% Bears as of 3/23/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 2.26, down from 2.34 the previous week and down from 3.00 on 1/12/11. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 5-week range on 3/25/11, hitting 17.07 intraday, and again confirming a return to bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
On 3/29/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose above their closing price lows of the previous 5 weeks, confirming an uptrend for the short-term Minor Ripple Trend. This 5-week closing price high was not confirmed by broader-based indexes, such as the S&P 500 Composite. On 3/16/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average fell below their closing price lows of the previous 10 weeks, confirming a downtrend for the intermediate-term Secondary Reaction Trend. Most other indexes confirmed this downtrend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,319.44) rose 9.25 points or 0.71% on Tuesday. SPX closed above the closing price levels of the previous 13 trading days. Trading volume rose slightly on the NYSE and fell slightly on the Nasdaq–both remain at low levels, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. SPX faces chart congestion (resistance) in the 1319-1333 zone. The short-term, 9-day trend is obviously up, but the larger, intermediate-term trend over the past 5 weeks still may prove to be corrective.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
1332.28, high of 3/3/11
1323.74, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1305.26, low of 3/29/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.64% India PS, PIN
2.47% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.01% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.87% South Africa Index, EZA
1.78% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.66% Sweden Index, EWD
1.63% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.59% Australia Index, EWA
1.56% Networking, IGN
1.54% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.43% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.31% South Korea Index, EWY
1.22% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.19% Energy DJ, IYE
1.16% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.16% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.13% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.12% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.12% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.09% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.06% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.06% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.06% Water Resources, PHO
1.05% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.04% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.03% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.03% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.00% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.99% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.99% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.98% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.98% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.97% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.96% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.95% Dividend International, PID
0.94% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.92% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.90% China 25 iS, FXI
0.89% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.89% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.88% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.87% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.87% France Index, EWQ
0.86% Austria Index, EWO
0.86% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.85% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.84% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.84% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.82% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.82% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.82% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.82% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.81% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.80% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.80% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.79% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.78% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.76% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.75% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.74% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.73% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.73% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
0.73% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.72% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.72% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.72% Belgium Index, EWK
0.71% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.70% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.69% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.69% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.69% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.68% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.68% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.68% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.67% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.67% Energy Global, IXC
0.67% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.67% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.66% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.66% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.65% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.64% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.62% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.62% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.61% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.61% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.60% European VIPERs, VGK
0.60% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.60% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.58% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.57% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.57% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.56% Canada Index, EWC
0.56% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.56% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.53% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.52% Singapore Index, EWS
0.52% EAFE Index, EFA
0.51% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.49% Spain Index, EWP
0.48% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.47% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.46% Global 100, IOO
0.46% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.45% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.44% Germany Index, EWG
0.43% Mexico Index, EWW
0.41% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.40% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.38% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.36% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.31% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.24% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.22% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.21% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.14% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.14% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.12% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.09% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.12% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.15% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.15% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.17% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.20% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.24% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.27% Italy Index, EWI
-0.29% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.32% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.49% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.77% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.01% Russia MV, RSX
-1.15% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
