I got this in the email this morning:

“TrimTabs Investment Research reporting their latest real-time economic data shows US economy is on the road to recovery and attributing the economic rebound mostly to low interest rates and government stimulus.”

Really? You guys wrote this in the beginning of February:

“TrimTabs using real-time numbers estimates that job losses for January were 105,000, much higher than Wall Street expectations that the BLS on Friday will report 5,000 January job losses. TrimTabs warns the BLS estimates are highly inaccurate because of incomplete survey data and illogical seasonal adjustments, among other things. Which means government policy, business and investment decisions based on these numbers are useless, and in fact, dangerous.”

Here is the blog post for that – Trim Tabs Expects Bomb

The technicals are lousy but the fundamentals are worse. One month, the government is dangerous and the next they get all the credit for the recovery.

All that matters is the specter of lifting the stimulus and that was not covered in the CMT exam.