EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 16, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2022 as the euro somehow or another picked up some strength against the Franc, climbing a few pips above yesterday, when it was trading at 1.2020. The pair are range bound between 1.2012 and 1.2025 and have been more or less in this range most of the week. The euro is weak against all of its trading partners, but with the floor set at 1.20 by the SNB, the euro has remained above, slightly only dropping once below the mark.

Investors today, ran from the euro, as market sentiment turned negative over poor data from China and worries about Spanish banking.

Spanish stocks and government bond prices came under renewed pressure on Friday after data showed a sharp rise in borrowing by the nation’s banks from the European Central Bank in March. Data released by the Bank of Spain

China’s first-quarter economic growth cools to its slowest pace in 11 quarters due to weak export growth and sluggish construction, though analysts view the figures as pointing to a gradual slowing rather than a replay of the 2008 sharp drop in activity.

Slowing Chinese growth will raise expectations of a move to more aggressive stimulus policy. In fact, a stealth stimulus is already underway. Growth in China’s gross domestic product in the first quarter slowed to 8.1% compared to a year ago, down markedly from 8.9%

Most of the day was a flee to the safety of the USD, equities tumbled along with commodities in today’s trading.

Economic Reports for April 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)	20.9%	20.8%	21.5%
CNY	Chinese GDP (YoY)	8.1%	8.3%	8.9%
CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)	11.9%	11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)	15.2%	15.0%	14.7%
EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
EUR	Finnish CPI (YoY)	2.90%	3.10%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	1.9%	1.2%	2.5%
USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
USD	CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%

Economic Events for April 16, 2012

08:15 CHF PPI (MoM) 0.5% 0.8%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.6% 0.9%

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -4.19B

Foreign Securities Purchases measures the overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors.

13:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% 1.1%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

13:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 21.1 20.2

The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 16-30 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication

Apr 16 09:10 Slovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds

Apr 16 09:10 Norway T-bill auction

Apr 17 08:30 Spain 12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Apr 18 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19 08:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Apr 19 08:50 France BTAN auction

Apr 19 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19 09:50 France OATi auction

Originally posted here