By FXEmpire.com
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 2, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/CHF saw a little action today, as the euro dropped at trade at 1.2035 after hitting a high of 1.2056. The euro gained momentum today against the USD after Consumer sentiment in March reached the highest in more than a year, as consumers grew more confident about their current economic conditions.
The University of Michigan said the final reading for the consumer-sentiment gauge in March hit 76.2 — the highest since February 2011. Last month sentiment was at 75.3.
The Chicago PMI, or Chicago business barometer by its formal name, decelerated in March but marked its fifth straight month above 60%. The PMI fell to 62.2% in March from 64.0% in February.
The euro gained against most of its trading partners, except it could not sustain strength against the Franc.
This gives a true picture of overall value of the euro, and the markets. The euro should have jumped here also, but did not as it moved on over reaction to the data and not on value.
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos on Friday said the country was working to ensure it won’t need a third bailout but said the potential need for further aid couldn’t be ruled out, news reports said. “Some form of financial assistance might be required.
France posted a 2011 budget deficit equal to 5.2% of gross domestic product, coming in under the government’s initial target of 5.7%, French President Nicolas Sarkozy reported.
Inflation in the 17-nation euro zone slowed to a 2.6% annual pace in March, down from 2.7% in February, the European Union statistical agency Eurostat released today.
We should see the euro continue to decline, remember though that the SNB will support the currency at the 1.20 level.
Economic Reports March 30, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
JPY |
Unemployment Rate |
4.5% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.9% |
1.4% |
1.9% |
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
3.0% |
-7.3% |
|
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
3.0% |
0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
CHF |
KOF Leading Indicators |
0.08 |
0.08 |
-0.11 |
|
NOK |
Norwegian Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.00% |
-0.50% |
1.10% |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.5% |
2.7% |
|
EUR |
Greek Retail Sales (YoY) |
-10.30% |
-12.60% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
62.2 |
63.1 |
64.0 |
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
76.2 |
75.1 |
74.3 |
Economic Events for Monday, April 2, 2012 Europe and America
08:15 CHF Retail Sales (YoY)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
08:30 CHF SVME PMI
08:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI
08:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI
09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills
Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction
Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11
Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction
Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions
Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12
Originally posted here
