Economic Events: (GMT)
06:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) -0.2% 0.3%
07:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) -0.3% 0.5%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.8% 1.9%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change 3.2K 1.2K
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month.
Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
10:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.4% 0.1%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
10:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
The Bank of England (BOE) Inflation Report sets out the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections upon which the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions and presents an assessment of the prospects for U.K. inflation over the following two years. The report is released quarterly.
10:30 GBP BoE Gov King Speaks
Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King (July 2003 – June 2013) is to speak. As head of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which controls short term interest rates, King has more influence over sterling’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 15, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2071 down from this mornings opening of 1.2086. The Swissie gained some strenght on the back of the German ZEW report, along with several other reports out on Tuesday. The euro continued to suffer because of Moodys rating annoucments. Negative retail sales data in the US gave the euro a bit of a pump in the later part of the day.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will host the summit on February 14 in Beijing with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.
Ahead of the meeting, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman told the BBC that Europe’s “debt issue is at a critical juncture.”
Late Monday, Moody’s Investors Service cut its ratings on six European countries including Italy, Portugal and Spain, and lowered the outlook on the United Kingdom, Austria and France. Spain bore the brunt of the ratings agency’s moves, suffering a two-notch downgrade, as Moody’s said it was skeptical the government would be able to reach its deficit target.
S&P downgraded 15 Spanish banks in total, and cut its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment on Spain to group ‘5? from ‘4?. Fitch also downgraded the banks.
The European Union may punish Spain’s government, led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, by May for holding off on austerity measures ahead of a regional election in March, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing a source familar with the situation. The report also cited three senior European Union officials, who said the European Commission thinks Spain overstated 2011 deficit figures to make this year’s deficit look better, and that it’s also moving too slow in addressing a deterioration in public finances that is expected this year.
German investor sentiment rose more sharply than expected in February to post its first positive reading since May, the Mannheim-based Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, reported Tuesday. The ZEW expectations index rose to 5.4 from minus 21.6 in January. Economists had forecast a February reading of minus 11.6.
European Union officials and leaders of the euro-zone’s central bank still haven’t hammered out key details of a bailout of Greece, two days before an important meeting to approve the next round of bailout funds for Greece. Though the Greek Parliament has unveiled a new austerity plan that calls for severe cuts in spending, pensions and wages, several things must still be determined.
Tuesday Economic Reports actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-16% |
-18% |
-16% |
|
AUD |
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
3 |
|
|
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
3.8% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
|
JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
|||
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
HUF |
Hungarian CPI (YoY) |
5.5% |
5.0% |
4.1% |
|
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.7% |
3.0% |
|
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
3.6% |
3.6% |
4.2% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
5.4 |
-11.6 |
-21.6 |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.1% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-8.1 |
-21.1 |
-32.5 |
|
GBP |
BOE Inflation Letter |
|||
|
BRL |
Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) |
6.7% |
7.6% |
6.7% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.5% |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule Feb 13-17
Feb 15 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Feb 15 10:30 Portugal Eur 1.5-1.75bn May & Aug T-bills
Feb 16 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction
Feb 16 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2034 conventional Gilt
Feb 16 10:50 France BTA/OATi auction
Feb 16 16:00 US
Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Feb 21, 5Y Notes on Feb
22 & 7Y Notes on Feb 23
Feb 16 18:00 US Auctions 30Y TIPS
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Originally posted here
